Here are our NFL picks for Wednesday 30 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 213.5 Passing Yards, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 213.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Deshaun Watson (CLE) Under 187.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cleveland Browns play Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL on Friday 2 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Deshaun Watson (CLE) Under 187.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Under 6.5 Receptions (-108)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cincinnati Bengals play Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Under 6.5 Receptions. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Raheim Sanders (CLE) Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cleveland Browns play Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL on Friday 2 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Raheim Sanders (CLE) Under 11.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 212.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Under 73.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cleveland Browns play Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL on Friday 2 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Under 73.5 Rush + Rec Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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