How is the model scorecard ROI calculated?

Every settled pick is staked a flat 1 unit at the recorded price: a win at plus-odds pays odds/100 units, a win at minus-odds pays 100/|odds|, a loss is minus 1. ROI is total units divided by number of picks. Duplicate lines are de-duplicated and a mixed duplicate is counted as a loss, never a win — the number is not flattered.

Why does the scorecard only show game lines?

We show the markets where settlement is exact and the numbers are trustworthy — the core game lines (moneyline, spread, puck line). Player props and game totals are held back until their settlement is fully clean, because we would rather show fewer honest numbers than flattering broken ones.

Public Model Scorecard

The settled record on the markets our model is sharpest on — the core game lines (moneyline, spread & puck line), broken down by sport and market. Every number is a real, flat-1-unit settled result, wins and losses, at the price we published. Where we track it, we also show closing-line value: how often each market beats the closing price — the truest test of a real edge.

Last 4 months · settled through Jul 2, 2026

Markets tracked

42.4%

Hit rate

Profitable markets

+23.3%

Best market ROI

All sports

Sport	Market	Picks	Hit%	Units	ROI	Beat close	Median CLV
AFL	Spread	57	64.9%	+13.3u	+23.3%	—	—
AFL	Head to Head	27	40.7%	-2.1u	-7.6%	—	—
MLB	Moneyline	166	44.6%	-0.4u	-0.2%	—	—
MLB	Spread	2147	39.5%	-55.9u	-2.6%	—	—
NHL	Moneyline	83	53.0%	+2.7u	+3.3%	—	—
NHL	Puck Line	171	64.3%	-4.6u	-2.7%	—	—

Model scorecard — common questions

How is the ROI calculated?

Every settled pick is staked a flat 1 unit at the recorded price (win at plus-odds = odds/100, win at minus-odds = 100/|odds|, loss = −1); ROI is total units ÷ picks. Duplicates are de-duplicated and a mixed duplicate counts as a loss, never a win — the number isn't flattered.

What is closing-line value (CLV)?

CLV measures how often our published price beat the market's closing price. Beating the close consistently is the strongest evidence of a real, repeatable edge because it's independent of short-term luck — see it live on the verified record.

Why only game lines?

We show the markets where settlement is exact and the numbers are trustworthy. Player props and game totals are held back until their settlement is fully clean — we'd rather show fewer honest numbers than flattering broken ones.

More free tools: Verified Record · Today's Picks · Value Finder · Line Shopping · Line Movement · Live Scores · Is X Playing

Method: real settled picks only, from our results database over the last 4 months. Flat 1 unit per selection at the recorded price (win at +odds = odds/100 units, win at −odds = 100/|odds|, loss = −1); ROI = units ÷ picks. Duplicate lines are de-duplicated and a mixed duplicate is counted as a loss, never a win — we do not flatter the number. Markets need ≥20 settled picks to appear, and we show the game lines where settlement is exact. Beat close is how often that market's price beat the closing line (closing-line value), shown where we have the data. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. 18+. Gamble responsibly. See the full verified record.

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Model scorecard — common questions

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Model scorecard — common questions

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