Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Flournoy is Under 2.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 50%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:20AM UTC
NFL
Ryan Flournoy
DAL
Ryan Flournoy has one live pick today: Receptions Under 2.5 that pays $199 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 2.5
-101 (1.99) · $100→$199
Value call
Washington Commanders
@
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Flournoy caught two of four targets for 22 yards in Sunday night's 28-20 loss to the Giants.
updated Sep 15, 2:18AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
55 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 55.2% · before adjusting for past results 69.4% · the book's price implies 50.3% · gap +4.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 69.4% | 55.2% | 50.3% | 2.11 | +19.1% |
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Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Under 2.5 Receptions (-101)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Dallas Cowboys play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at -101 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range6.5–28.5model over43%tips tracked10
Ryan Flournoy's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
26%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2
Ryan Flournoy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 26%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–2.5tips tracked4
Ryan Flournoy's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys |
Receiving Yards |
28.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Ryan Flournoy (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Flournoy is Under 2.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys on Sunday 20 September at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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