Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keenan Allen is Over 8.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 8 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 8%, the price says 3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 2:56AM UTC
NFL
Keenan Allen
IND
Keenan Allen has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 8.5 that pays $3,000 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 8.5
+2900 (30.00) · $100→$3,000
Value call
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Allen has been formally charged with two misdemeanors related to his August arrest, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports.
updated Sep 16, 2:35PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
8 in 100
Predicted
5.1 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 7.6% · before adjusting for past results 7.6% · the book's price implies 3.3% · gap +4.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 30.00 | +4.3% |
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Keenan Allen (IND) Over 8.5 Player receptions alternate (+2900)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Keenan Allen (IND) Over 8.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +2900 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $300 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceptions5 lines trackedNo line posted 1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–8.5model over96%tips tracked5
Keenan Allen's NFL receptions prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–89.5model over99%tips tracked4
Keenan Allen's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
9.5 |
Over |
-667 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
2.5 |
Over |
-222 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
-714 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Keenan Allen (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keenan Allen is Over 8.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +4.3% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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