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NFL

Tez Johnson

TB

Value call

Tez Johnson has one live pick today: over 2.5 receptions that pays $590 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
27 in 100
Predicted
2.2 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 27.2% · before adjusting for past results 36.4% · the book's price implies 17.0% · gap +10.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
Thu 8 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Tez Johnson
over 2.5 receptions
Receptions (Alt) Over 2.5 +490 (5.90) · $100→$590
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 27 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$59.00 Odds+490
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tez Johnson is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 27 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 27%, the price says 17%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:40AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
updated Oct 10, 4:43AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)36.4%27.2%17.0%5.90+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tez Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions (Alt) (+490)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tez Johnson has a real chance to make an impact in this game. The Dallas Cowboys have struggled defensively, giving up a lot of yards through the air last season. That could open the door for Johnson to get more catches than usual, especially since the Cowboys allowed 265.94 passing yards a game. While this matchup is tough, Johnson's odds of getting over 2.5 receptions look good. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also haven't been great at moving the ball, meaning the game might rely more on quick passes. However, the Cowboys' defense can be unpredictable, which is the biggest risk for this bet. Overall, Johnson could surprise us and deliver some solid catches.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (22 picks) 72.7% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

Tez Johnson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards71 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over69%tips tracked71

Tez Johnson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 71 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions23 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over85%tips tracked23

Tez Johnson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 23 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Tez Johnson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receptions (Alt) 2.5 Over +490 ✗ MISS
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receptions 1.5 Over +144 ✗ MISS
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receptions (Alt) 1.5 Over +142 ✗ MISS
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tez Johnson (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 72.7% on tracked Tez Johnson picks. The latest model pick for Tez Johnson is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys on Thursday 8 October at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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