Tez Johnson has one live pick today: over 4.5 receiving yards that pays $131 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
30.1 receiving yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 93.4% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +17.1%.
Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Chicago Bears
Tez Johnson
over 4.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 4.5
-323 (1.31) · $100→$131
Value call
HIGHWins about 93 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$13.10
Odds-323
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tez Johnson is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 93%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 8, 4:22PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Tez Johnson playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Tez Johnson is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Johnson did not garner a target during Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
updated Nov 4, 3:07AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 93.4% | — | 76.3% | 1.31 | +17.1% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Tez Johnson (TB) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-323)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Chicago Bears play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Monday 9 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tez Johnson (TB) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Tez Johnson's lines for Mon 9 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 4.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Receiving Yards 15.5
-112 best over price · 8 books
Tez Johnson's receiving yards line is 15.5, best over price -112 across 8 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
-115 best over price · 1 book
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5, best over price -115 across 1 book.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+175 best over price · 16 books
Tez Johnson's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +175 across 16 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Tez Johnson's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsO 4.5 -323 4.5posted line · receiving yds
Tez Johnson has a live NFL receiving yards market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears: over 4.5 receiving yds priced at -323.
Anytime TDNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsAnytime TD +750
Tez Johnson has a live NFL anytime td market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears priced at +750.
ReceptionsNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsO 2.5 +360 2.5posted line · receptions
Tez Johnson has a live NFL receptions market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears: over 2.5 receptions priced at +360.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Receiving Yards |
32.5 |
Under |
-111 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Receiving Yards |
31.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Receiving Yards |
30.5 |
Under |
-109 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 25 Oct 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Tez Johnson (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tez Johnson is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears on Sunday 8 November at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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