Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Malik Willis is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 56%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 7:54PM UTC
NFL
Malik Willis
MIA
Malik Willis has one live pick today: Passing Yards (Alt) Over 174.5 that pays $180 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 174.5
-125 (1.80) · $100→$180
Value call
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Willis completed 14 of 23 passes for 197 yards and one touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the 49ers. He also rushed twice for six yards.
updated Sep 21, 1:33AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
183.1 Passing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 59.5% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +3.9%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 59.5% | — | 55.6% | 1.80 | +3.9% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Malik Willis (MIA) Over 174.5 Player pass yds alternate (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Miami Dolphins play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Malik Willis (MIA) Over 174.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Malik Willis's lines for Sun 27 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Malik Willis's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Malik Willis's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5
Malik Willis's passing yards (alt) line is 124.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 99.5
Malik Willis's passing yards (alt) line is 99.5.
Passing Yards 177.5
-114 best over price · 1 book
Malik Willis's passing yards line is 177.5, best over price -114 across 1 book.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 1.5
Malik Willis's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 1.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Malik Willis's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
1 market livePassing YardsNext game · Kansas City ChiefsO 149.5 -250
149.5posted line · passing yds
Malik Willis has a live NFL passing yards market for Kansas City Chiefs: over 149.5 passing yds priced at -250.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Malik Willis (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Malik Willis is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins on Sunday 27 September at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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