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NFL

Tim Patrick

NYJ

Value call

Tim Patrick has one live pick today: over 4.5 receiving yards that pays $136 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
22.5 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.8% · before adjusting for past results 80.2% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap -13.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
New England · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Tim Patrick
over 4.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 4.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.60 Odds-278
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Patrick is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 18, 5:55PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
updated Oct 17, 12:12AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)80.2%59.8%73.5%1.36+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Tim Patrick (NYJ) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-278)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New England Patriots play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 18 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tim Patrick (NYJ) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Tim Patrick's lines for Sun 18 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 4.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.

Receiving Yards 12.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards line is 12.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.

Receptions 1.5

Tim Patrick's receptions line is 1.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5

Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards8 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–29.5model over80%tips tracked8

Tim Patrick's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 4.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions3 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–4.5tips tracked3

Tim Patrick's NFL receptions prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Tim Patrick average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tim Patrick (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Patrick is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs New England Patriots on Sunday 18 October at New England. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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