Tim Patrick has one live pick today: over 4.5 receiving yards that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
23.9 receiving yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 82.8% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +9.8%.
Latest Model PickFree
New York Jets
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Tim Patrick
over 4.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 4.5
-270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
HIGHWins about 83 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$13.70
Odds-270
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Patrick is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 83 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 83%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 8, 10:14AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Tim Patrick playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Tim Patrick is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
updated Nov 2, 7:16PM UTC · 5d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 82.8% | — | 73.0% | 1.37 | +9.8% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Tim Patrick (NYJ) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-270)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 8 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tim Patrick (NYJ) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Tim Patrick's lines for Sun 8 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 4.5.
Receiving Yards 12.5
-110 best over price · 7 books
Tim Patrick's receiving yards line is 12.5, best over price -110 across 7 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5
-120 best over price · 1 book
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5, best over price -120 across 1 book.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
Tim Patrick's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceptionsNext game · New York Jets @ Kansas City ChiefsO 3.5 +950 3.5posted line · receptions
Tim Patrick has a live NFL receptions market for New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 3.5 receptions priced at +950.
Receiving YardsNext game · New York Jets @ Kansas City ChiefsO 4.5 -270 4.5posted line · receiving yds
Tim Patrick has a live NFL receiving yards market for New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 4.5 receiving yds priced at -270.
Anytime TDNext game · New York Jets @ Kansas City ChiefsAnytime TD +950
Tim Patrick has a live NFL anytime td market for New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs priced at +950.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-278 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
9.5 |
Over |
-154 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards |
12.5 |
Over |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Oct 26 |
New York Jets @ New England Patriots |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Tim Patrick (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Patrick is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday 8 November at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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