Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Laquon Treadwell is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 14 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 14%, the price says 17%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 3, 8:22PM UTC
NFL
Laquon Treadwell
IND
Laquon Treadwell has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 2.5 that pays $590 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 2.5
+490 (5.90) · $100→$590
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 226 of 421 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Treadwell caught all three of his targets for 61 yards and made one tackle on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
updated Sep 23, 4:23AM UTC · 10d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
14 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 13.5% · before adjusting for past results 20.8% · the book's price implies 17.0% · gap -3.4%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 20.8% | 13.5% | 17.0% | 5.90 | +3.9% |
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Laquon Treadwell (IND) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (+490)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Laquon Treadwell (IND) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +490 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $59 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Laquon Treadwell's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
-149 best over price · 13 books
Laquon Treadwell's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price -149 across 13 books.
Receiving Yards 13.5
Laquon Treadwell's receiving yards line is 13.5.
Receptions 1.5
-149 best over price · 13 books
Laquon Treadwell's receptions line is 1.5, best over price -149 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
-149 best over price · 13 books
Laquon Treadwell's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price -149 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
-149 best over price · 13 books
Laquon Treadwell's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price -149 across 13 books.
Receiving Yards 14.5
Laquon Treadwell's receiving yards line is 14.5.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceptionsNext game · Washington CommandersU 1.5 +122 1.5posted line · receptions
Laquon Treadwell has a live NFL receptions market for Washington Commanders: under 1.5 receptions priced at +122.
Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
9%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10
Laquon Treadwell's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 9%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted 13.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–17.5tips tracked5
Laquon Treadwell's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 13.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions |
1.5 |
Under |
-154 |
✓ HIT |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Laquon Treadwell (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Laquon Treadwell is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders on Sunday 4 October at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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