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Implied probability calculator:
the chance behind any price.

Every price hides a win chance. Type the odds and see the chance the price gives, plus what a $10 bet returns if it wins.

Win chanceFree · No sign-up
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Chance the price gives
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$10 returns
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American
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Decimal
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Fractional
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Only want to switch between odds formats? Use the odds converter.

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Our model gives each game its own chance to win and checks it against the price. The free picks show the price and what $10 returns.

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How the chance is worked out

  1. Minus odds: chance = odds ÷ (odds + 100). Use the number without the minus. -200 is 200 ÷ 300 = 66.7%.
  2. Plus odds: chance = 100 ÷ (odds + 100). +150 is 100 ÷ 250 = 40.0%.
  3. Decimal odds: chance = 1 ÷ decimal. 2.50 is 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.0%.
  4. Fractional odds: turn it into decimal first. 3/2 is 1.5 + 1 = 2.50, so 40.0%.

Worked example

Odds-110
Sum110 ÷ 210
Chance the price gives52.4%
$10 returns$19.09

Odds to probability:
the full chart

Each row shows the American price, the same price in decimal and fractional, the chance the price gives, and what a $10 bet returns in total (your $10 back plus the win) if it wins.

American odds to win chance and $10 return
AmericanDecimalFractionalChance$10 returns
-10001.101/1090.9%$11.00
-5001.201/583.3%$12.00
-4001.251/480.0%$12.50
-3001.331/375.0%$13.33
-2501.402/571.4%$14.00
-2001.501/266.7%$15.00
-1751.574/763.6%$15.71
-1501.672/360.0%$16.67
-1401.715/758.3%$17.14
-1301.7710/1356.5%$17.69
-1201.835/654.5%$18.33
-1101.9110/1152.4%$19.09
-1051.9520/2151.2%$19.52
+1002.001/150.0%$20.00
+1052.0521/2048.8%$20.50
+1102.1011/1047.6%$21.00
+1202.206/545.5%$22.00
+1302.3013/1043.5%$23.00
+1402.407/541.7%$24.00
+1502.503/240.0%$25.00
+1752.757/436.4%$27.50
+2003.002/133.3%$30.00
+2503.505/228.6%$35.00
+3004.003/125.0%$40.00
+4005.004/120.0%$50.00
+5006.005/116.7%$60.00
+7508.5015/211.8%$85.00
+100011.0010/19.1%$110.00

What do the odds mean?
Two quick examples

What does -200 mean?

-200 means you bet $200 to win $100. Smaller works the same way: bet $20 to win $10, and you get $30 back in total. The price says this wins about 67 times in 100 (66.7%). Minus odds mark the favorite.

What does +150 mean?

+150 means a $100 bet wins $150. A $10 bet wins $15, and you get $25 back in total. The price says this wins about 40 times in 100 (40.0%). Plus odds mark the underdog.

Want a second opinion next to each price? Our free NBA picks put our own chance next to each price.

Implied probability:
quick answers

What is implied probability?

It is the chance of winning that a price gives. Every price hides one. At -110 it is about 52.4%, so the price says the bet wins about 52 times in 100.

How do I convert American odds to probability?

For minus odds, divide the number by the number plus 100. -200 is 200 / 300 = 66.7%. For plus odds, divide 100 by the number plus 100. +150 is 100 / 250 = 40%. For decimal odds, divide 1 by the price.

Why do both sides add up to more than 100%?

The sportsbook builds in a cut. Two -110 prices each say 52.4%, so together they say 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the bookmaker's cut. Our no-vig calculator takes it out to show the fair price.

What does -110 mean?

You bet $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10. A $10 bet at -110 returns $19.09 in total if it wins. The price says it wins about 52 times in 100.

Is a higher chance always a better bet?

No. A big favorite wins often but pays little. What matters is whether the price is fair for the real chance. If the real chance is higher than the chance the price gives, the price is good. If it is lower, the price is poor.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Tools are for information only. Gamble responsibly — never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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