Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Garrett Wilson is Under 5.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 50%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:04PM UTC
NFL
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
Garrett Wilson has one live pick today: Receptions Under 5.5 that pays $202 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 5.5
+102 (2.02) · $100→$202
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Wilson caught five of seven targets for 57 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 20-17 overtime loss to the Packers.
updated Sep 20, 9:07PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
54 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 54.3% · before adjusting for past results 68.0% · the book's price implies 49.5% · gap +4.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 68.0% | 54.3% | 49.5% | 2.16 | +18.5% |
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Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Under 5.5 Receptions (+102)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
New York Jets play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Under 5.5 Receptions. It was priced at +102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6
Garrett Wilson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–29.5model over53%tips tracked5
Garrett Wilson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · receptions
line range5.5–5.5tips tracked4
Garrett Wilson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets |
Receptions |
5.5 |
Under |
+102 |
✓ HIT |
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Garrett Wilson (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Garrett Wilson is Under 5.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets on Sunday 20 September at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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