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NFL

Kyle Williams

NE

Value call

Kyle Williams has one live pick today: under 14.5 receiving yards that pays $187 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
49 in 100
Predicted
16.5 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 49.4% · before adjusting for past results 64.6% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap -4.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
New England · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Kyle Williams
under 14.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 14.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
Value call
LEANWins about 49 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.70 Odds-115
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Williams is Under 14.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 49%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:41AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Williams caught all three of his targets for 91 yards and a touchdown while adding three kick returns for 71 yards during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
updated Oct 12, 12:31AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards64.6%49.4%53.5%1.97+11.1%

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AI Analysis

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New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders: Kyle Williams Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Kyle Williams has a tough matchup against the New England Patriots, who have been solid at limiting tight ends. Last season, they allowed only 0.4 touchdowns a game to tight ends, ranking in the middle of the league. With the Patriots' defense pushing hard, it's likely that Williams will struggle to get open and rack up yards. While our numbers suggest a good chance for this bet, remember that the Raiders' quarterback also faced extra pressure on a good number of dropbacks. Given how close these teams are in performance, Williams could very well end up under 14.5 receiving yards.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD15 lines trackedNo line posted
15%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked15

Kyle Williams's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 15 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 15%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions19 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over75%tips tracked19

Kyle Williams's NFL receptions prop has been priced 19 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards16 lines trackedNo line posted
11.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–49.5model over54%tips tracked16

Kyle Williams's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 16 times, typically around a 11.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Kyle Williams average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receptions (Alt) 2.5 Over +541 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receptions (Alt) 1.5 Over +176 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receptions 1.5 Over +175 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kyle Williams (NE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Williams is Under 14.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.1% on this pick. Their next game is Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots on Sunday 11 October at New England. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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