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Kyler Murray

MIN

Value call

Kyler Murray has one live pick today: over 174.5 passing yards that pays $124 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
224.6 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 91.1% · before adjusting for past results 94.4% · the book's price implies 80.7% · gap +10.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 PM ET
Kyler Murray
over 174.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 174.5 -417 (1.24) · $100→$124
Value call
HIGHWins about 91 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.40 Odds-417
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyler Murray is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 91%, the price says 81%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 5:24AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
The Vikings are targeting Week 12 against the Falcons on Sunday, Nov. 29, for a return for Murray (hamstring), Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
updated Nov 14, 7:54PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)94.4%91.1%80.7%1.24+13.7%

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AI Analysis

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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray Over 174.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-417)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Kyler Murray has been showing some solid form lately, and he's really good at getting those passing yards. The Lions will be tough at home, but their defense has had some holes, which gives Murray a good chance to rack up those yards. We think he can throw for over 174.5 yards in this game, especially with how our numbers see this matchup. The biggest risk is that the Vikings' defense can surprise you sometimes, and they might step up to limit his throws. Still, with how things have been going for Murray, taking the over seems like a smart bet. Let's see if he can keep the momentum going!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards16 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–39.5model over70%tips tracked16

Kyler Murray's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 16 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards86 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–226.5model over99%tips tracked86

Kyler Murray's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 86 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Kyler Murray's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Kyler Murray average?How many rushing yards does Kyler Murray average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Rushing Yards — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kyler Murray (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyler Murray is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.7% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 1 November at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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