Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyler Murray is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 4, 11:44AM UTC
NFL
Kyler Murray
MIN
Kyler Murray has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 that pays $177 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
-130 (1.77) · $100→$177
Value call
Miami Dolphins
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 8:05PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Murray (concussion) completed 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and one interception and took two carries for 17 yards during Sunday's 23-16 win at Tampa Bay.
updated Sep 28, 1:03AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Passing Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 54.9% · before adjusting for past results 66.3% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap -1.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 66.3% | 54.9% | 56.5% | 1.89 | +9.8% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Kyler Murray (MIN) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kyler Murray (MIN) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Kyler Murray's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Kyler Murray's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Kyler Murray's interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Rushing Attempts 5.5
Kyler Murray's rushing attempts line is 5.5.
Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards7 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–39.5model over98%tips tracked7
Kyler Murray's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 7 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–219.5model over99%tips tracked9
Kyler Murray's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Attempts |
5.5 |
Under |
-141 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Passing Yards |
219.5 |
Under |
-112 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Passing Yards |
218.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Kyler Murray (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyler Murray is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 4 October at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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