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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Xavier Worthy is Over 6.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 6 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 6%, the price says 8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 10:07PM UTC
NFL

Xavier Worthy

KC

Value call

Xavier Worthy has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 6.5 that pays $1,300 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt) Over 6.5 +1200 (13.00) · $100→$1,300
Value call
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Worthy secured three of six targets for 18 yards in the Chiefs' 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday night.
updated Sep 15, 4:32AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
6 in 100
Predicted
3.9 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 6.1% · before adjusting for past results 10.1% · the book's price implies 7.7% · gap -1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)10.1%6.1%7.7%13.00+2.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Xavier Worthy (KC) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate (+1200)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Xavier Worthy (KC) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Xavier Worthy's lines for Mon 21 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions (Alt) 6.5
+110 best over price · 11 books

Xavier Worthy's receptions (alt) line is 6.5, best over price +110 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 5.5
+110 best over price · 11 books

Xavier Worthy's receptions (alt) line is 5.5, best over price +110 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+110 best over price · 11 books

Xavier Worthy's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +110 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 3.5
+110 best over price · 11 books

Xavier Worthy's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price +110 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+110 best over price · 11 books

Xavier Worthy's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +110 across 11 books.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5

Xavier Worthy's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5

Xavier Worthy's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.

Receiving Yards 38.5
-115 best over price · 3 books

Xavier Worthy's receiving yards line is 38.5, best over price -115 across 3 books.

Betting angles

2 markets live
ReceptionsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsO 3.5 +106
3.5posted line · receptions

Xavier Worthy has a live NFL receptions market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 3.5 receptions priced at +106.

Receiving YardsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsU 40.5 -110
40.5posted line · receiving yds

Xavier Worthy has a live NFL receiving yards market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: under 40.5 receiving yds priced at -110.

Anytime TD12 lines trackedNo line posted
35%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked12

Xavier Worthy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 12 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 35%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–4.5model over57%tips tracked3

Xavier Worthy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Xavier Worthy (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xavier Worthy is Over 6.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday 21 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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