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NFL

Efton Chism III

NE

Value call

Efton Chism III has one live pick today: under 2.5 receptions that pays $208 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
2.1 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.6% · before adjusting for past results 66.1% · the book's price implies 48.1% · gap +7.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 4:25 PM ET
Efton Chism III
under 2.5 receptions
Receptions Under 2.5 +108 (2.08) · $100→$208
Value call
LEANWins about 56 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.80 Odds+108
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Efton Chism III is Under 2.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 56%, the price says 48%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 10:24AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Chism caught all five of his targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 24-19 win over the Dolphins.
updated Nov 4, 2:17AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions66.1%55.6%48.1%2.20+18.0%

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AI Analysis

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Efton Chism III (NE) Under 2.5 Receptions (+108)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Miami Dolphins play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 1 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Efton Chism III (NE) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD11 lines trackedNo line posted
13%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked11

Efton Chism III's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 11 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 13%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions15 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–4.5model over58%tips tracked15

Efton Chism III's NFL receptions prop has been priced 15 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted
21.5typical line · receiving yds
line range17.5–21.5tips tracked5

Efton Chism III's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 21.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Efton Chism III average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receiving Yards 21.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receiving Yards 19.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receiving Yards 18.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receptions — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receiving Yards — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Efton Chism III (NE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Efton Chism III is Under 2.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.0% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins on Sunday 1 November at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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