Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Derrick Henry is Under 6.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 9:41PM UTC
NFL
Derrick Henry
BAL
Derrick Henry has one live pick today: Receiving Yards Under 6.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards
Under 6.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
New Orleans Saints
@
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designationSeason pending
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
8.6 Receiving Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 53.5% · before adjusting for past results 67.9% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +0.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards | 67.9% | 53.5% | 53.2% | 2.00 | +14.7% |
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Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Baltimore Ravens play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 6.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards57 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–29.5model over53%tips tracked57
Derrick Henry's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 57 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions8 lines trackedNo line posted 1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked8
Derrick Henry's NFL receptions prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Derrick Henry (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Derrick Henry is Under 6.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens on Sunday 20 September at Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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