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Model picks & player props
NFL
Kansas City
Mon 14 Sep 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos
VS
Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs and backs Denver Broncos -5.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $385.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Denver Broncos -5.5
Denver Broncos -5.5 Alternate Spreads H2
You bet$10 If it wins$38.50Best price+285
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.9%
The price says43.5%

The model graded 70 markets for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $385 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 14 Sep 2026, 8:15 PM ET at Kansas City.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Spreads H2 Denver Broncos -5.5 Lean46% chance +285
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Lean54% chance Members
Alternate Totals H1 Members only Lean58% chance Members
Totals H1 Members only High72% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H2 Members only Lean54% chance Members
Team Totals Q1 Members only High64% chance Members
Alternate Spreads Q1 Members only Lean47% chance Members
Totals Q1 Members only High67% chance Members
Moneyline 3 Way H1 Members only Long-shot39% chance Members
Rushing Yards (Alt) × 2 props Highup to 97% Members
Receptions × 1 prop Highup to 65% Members
Receptions (Alt) × 2 props Highup to 79% Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 4 props Highup to 88% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 14 props Long-shotup to 29% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs last met on Mon 14 Sep 2026: Kansas City Chiefs won 31-10. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Spreads H2
Denver Broncos
-5.5
+285
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,095+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Denver BroncosAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosAlternate Spreads Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsAlternate Spreads Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline 3 Way H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Denver Broncos

  • Riley Moss CBOut
  • Pat Surtain II CBOut
  • Pat Bryant WROut
  • Jonah Coleman RBOut

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Josh Simmons OTQuestionable
  • Tyquan Thornton WROut
  • Rashee Rice WRQuestionable
Availability updated Oct 10, 4:16PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Outdoors with 12 mph wind, 57°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Wind12 mph
Temperature57°F
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Patrick Mahomes KC Rushing Yards (Alt)
Rashee Rice KC Receptions
Rashee Rice KC Receptions (Alt)
Noah Gray KC Receiving Yards (Alt)
Noah Gray KC Receptions (Alt)

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs to winNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadKansas City Chiefs spreadNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBroncos @ ChiefsNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent results

Kansas City Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 games; Denver Broncos have won 3 of their last 5.

Kansas City Chiefs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W30–27LVAway
W24–10MIAAway
W33–30INDHome
W31–10DENHome
D9–9SEAHome
Denver Broncos — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L14–24SFAway
W30–26LARHome
W20–13JAXHome
L10–31KCAway
W34–6MINHome

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Kansas City Chiefs won 1, Denver Broncos won 0.

DateKansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosWinner
Sep 153110Kansas City Chiefs

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Josh Simmons OTQUESTIONABLE
Tyquan Thornton WROUT
Rashee Rice WRQUESTIONABLE
Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Riley Moss CBOUT
Pat Surtain II CBOUT
Pat Bryant WROUT
Jonah Coleman RBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Broncos vs Chiefs, or as Chiefs vs Broncos. The most recent game between them was Monday 14 September 2026 at Kansas City. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 19–5 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 43.3 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Tue 15 Sep 2026, Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: the Chiefs won 31-10.

DateGameScoreWinner
15 Sep 2026Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs31–10Kansas City Chiefs
14 Sep 2026Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs31–10Kansas City Chiefs
25 Dec 2025Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs13–20Denver Broncos
16 Nov 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos22–19Denver Broncos
5 Jan 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos38–0Denver Broncos
10 Nov 2024Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs16–14Kansas City Chiefs
29 Oct 2023Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos24–9Denver Broncos
12 Oct 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs19–8Kansas City Chiefs
1 Jan 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs27–24Kansas City Chiefs
11 Dec 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos28–34Kansas City Chiefs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Playing fantasy? NFL fantasy projections for this week — the same model, scored your way.

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