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Model picks & player props
Denver Broncos
VS
Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 4:51AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs and backs Denver Broncos hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $255.

NFL
Kansas City
Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:15AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Denver Broncos Moneyline 3 Way Q1 +155

The model graded 70 markets for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $255 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:15AM at Kansas City.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.2%
The price says37.4%
Best price+155
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline 3 Way Q1 Denver Broncos Lean52% chance +155
Moneyline H2 Members only Lean58% chance Members
Alternate Totals Q1 Members only Long-shot15% chance Members
Alternate Totals H1 Members only Long-shot26% chance Members
Moneyline H1 Members only Lean57% chance Members
Moneyline Q2 Members only Lean56% chance Members
Moneyline Q3 Members only Lean57% chance Members
Moneyline Q4 Members only Lean53% chance Members
Rushing Yards (Alt) × 2 props Highup to 97% Members
Receptions × 1 prop Highup to 65% Members
Receptions (Alt) × 2 props Highup to 79% Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 4 props Highup to 88% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 14 props Long-shotup to 29% Members
Receiving Yards × 5 props Highup to 73% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs last met on Tue 15 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Patrick Mahomes Yes · $100 returned $754

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 174 of 355 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 15
Kansas City Chiefs Over 17.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $136
Our call on this game: — members only · unlock tonight's call2 picks on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline 3 Way Q1
Denver Broncos
+155
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,537+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Denver BroncosMoneyline 3 Way Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneyline Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Denver Broncos

  • Marvin Mims Jr. WROut
  • RJ Harvey RBQuestionable
  • Jonathon Cooper LBOut
  • Nick Gargiulo GOut
  • Frank Crum OTOut
  • Caleb Lohner TEOut
  • Levelle Bailey LBOut

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chris Jones DTQuestionable
  • Mansoor Delane CBQuestionable
  • Cooper McDonald LBOut
  • Omarr Norman-Lott DTOut
  • Jimmy Holiday WROut
Availability updated Sep 19, 12:09AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Outdoors with 12 mph wind, 57°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Wind12 mph
Temperature57°F
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Patrick Mahomes KC Rushing Yards (Alt)
Rashee Rice KC Receptions
Rashee Rice KC Receptions (Alt)
Noah Gray KC Receiving Yards (Alt)
Noah Gray KC Receptions (Alt)

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs to winNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadKansas City Chiefs spreadNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBroncos @ ChiefsNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent results

Kansas City Chiefs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Denver Broncos have won 2 of their last 5.

Kansas City Chiefs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W31–10DENHome
D9–9SEAHome
L15–16TBAway
L12–20LARHome
L12–14LVAway
Denver Broncos — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L10–31KCAway
W34–6MINHome
L13–33GBHome
W27–7ATLAway
L7–10NEHome

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Kansas City Chiefs won 1, Denver Broncos won 0.

DateKansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosWinner
Sep 153110Kansas City Chiefs

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Chris Jones DTQUESTIONABLE
Mansoor Delane CBQUESTIONABLE
Cooper McDonald LBOUT
Omarr Norman-Lott DTOUT
Jimmy Holiday WROUT
Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Marvin Mims Jr. WROUT
RJ Harvey RBQUESTIONABLE
Jonathon Cooper LBOUT
Nick Gargiulo GOUT
Frank Crum OTOUT
Caleb Lohner TEOUT
Levelle Bailey LBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
15 Sep 26 Alternate Totals Q1 Over 13.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Totals Q1 Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Totals Q1 Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Under 19.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Totals H1 Over 17.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Totals H1 Over 16.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Over 24.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Over 28.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Over 27.5 ✓ HIT
15 Sep 26 Spread Kansas City Chiefs -3 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Broncos vs Chiefs, or as Chiefs vs Broncos. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Kansas City. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 19–5 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 43.3 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
15 Sep 2026Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs31–10Kansas City Chiefs
14 Sep 2026Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs31–10Kansas City Chiefs
25 Dec 2025Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs13–20Denver Broncos
16 Nov 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos22–19Denver Broncos
5 Jan 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos38–0Denver Broncos
10 Nov 2024Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs16–14Kansas City Chiefs
29 Oct 2023Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos24–9Denver Broncos
12 Oct 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs19–8Kansas City Chiefs
1 Jan 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs27–24Kansas City Chiefs
11 Dec 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos28–34Kansas City Chiefs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Playing fantasy? NFL fantasy projections for this week — the same model, scored your way.

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