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Model picks & player props
Denver Broncos
VS
Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 5:30PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
Kansas City
Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:15AM
9
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Denver Broncos -12.5 Spread -115

The model graded 9 markets for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:15AM at Kansas City.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win73.4%
The price says53.5%
Best price-115
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Denver Broncos -12.5 High73% chance -115
Moneyline Long-shot31% chance —
Spread Lean56% chance —
Spread Lean56% chance —
Moneyline Lean46% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Denver Broncos
-12.5
-115
+ 8 more markets
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All 9 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Denver BroncosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Kansas City ChiefsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Denver Broncos

  • Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable
  • Reese Taylor CBQuestionable
  • Riley Moss CBQuestionable
  • Levelle Bailey LBOut
  • Luke Wattenberg CQuestionable
  • Matt Henningsen DEOut
  • Michael Deiter COut
  • Caleb Lohner TEQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes QBQuestionable
  • Melvin Smith Jr. CBQuestionable
  • Kenneth Walker III RBQuestionable
  • Jeff Caldwell WROut
  • Tyreke Smith DEQuestionable
  • Alohi Gilman SQuestionable
  • Matt Waletzko OTOut
  • Ashton Gillotte DEQuestionable
  • Drue Tranquill LBQuestionable
  • Trey Smith GQuestionable
  • L'Jarius Sneed CBQuestionable
  • Kader Kohou CBQuestionable
Availability updated Aug 30, 4:29AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Outdoors with 12 mph wind, 57°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Wind12 mph
Temperature57°F
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

2 markets live
MoneylineDenver Broncos to win+124

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadKansas City Chiefs spread-3 -105
56%cover %

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBroncos @ ChiefsNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs — what the model found

Our model graded 9 betting markets for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — 9 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

9
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 9 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 8 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent results

Kansas City Chiefs have won 0 of their last 4 games; Denver Broncos have won 3 of their last 5.

Kansas City Chiefs — last 4
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
D9–9SEAHome
L15–16TBAway
L12–20LARHome
L12–14LVAway
Denver Broncos — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W34–6MINHome
L13–33GBHome
W27–7ATLAway
L7–10NEHome
W33–30BUFHome

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Patrick Mahomes QBQUESTIONABLE
Melvin Smith Jr. CBQUESTIONABLE
Kenneth Walker III RBQUESTIONABLE
Jeff Caldwell WROUT
Tyreke Smith DEQUESTIONABLE
Alohi Gilman SQUESTIONABLE
Matt Waletzko OTOUT
Ashton Gillotte DEQUESTIONABLE
Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Marvin Mims Jr. WRQUESTIONABLE
Reese Taylor CBQUESTIONABLE
Riley Moss CBQUESTIONABLE
Levelle Bailey LBOUT
Luke Wattenberg CQUESTIONABLE
Matt Henningsen DEOUT
Michael Deiter COUT
Caleb Lohner TEQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Broncos vs Chiefs, or as Chiefs vs Broncos. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Kansas City. The model has generated 9 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 17–5 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 43.5 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Dec 2025Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs13–20Denver Broncos
16 Nov 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos22–19Denver Broncos
5 Jan 2025Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos38–0Denver Broncos
10 Nov 2024Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs16–14Kansas City Chiefs
29 Oct 2023Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos24–9Denver Broncos
12 Oct 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs19–8Kansas City Chiefs
1 Jan 2023Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs27–24Kansas City Chiefs
11 Dec 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos28–34Kansas City Chiefs
8 Jan 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos24–28Kansas City Chiefs
5 Dec 2021Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs22–9Kansas City Chiefs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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