Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Gray is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 2 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 2%, the price says 4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 5:57AM UTC
NFL
Noah Gray
KC
Noah Gray has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $2,800 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+2700 (28.00) · $100→$2,800
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Gray finished Monday's 31-10 victory versus Denver with one catch on his only target for five yards.
updated Sep 16, 12:31AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
2 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 2.4% · before adjusting for past results 16.9% · the book's price implies 3.6% · gap -1.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 28.00 | +13.4% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Noah Gray (KC) Yes Player last td (+2700)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Noah Gray (KC) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +2700 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $280 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Noah Gray's lines for Mon 21 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Noah Gray's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Anytime TD
+750 best over price · 14 books
Noah Gray's anytime td line is posted, best over price +750 across 14 books.
Receiving Yards 10.5
-112 best over price · 3 books
Noah Gray's receiving yards line is 10.5, best over price -112 across 3 books.
Total Touchdowns 1.5
Noah Gray's total touchdowns line is 1.5.
Receptions 1.5
+155 best over price · 12 books
Noah Gray's receptions line is 1.5, best over price +155 across 12 books.
Receiving Yards 11.5
-108 best over price · 8 books
Noah Gray's receiving yards line is 11.5, best over price -108 across 8 books.
Betting angles
3 markets liveAnytime TDNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsAnytime TD +800
Noah Gray has a live NFL anytime td market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs priced at +800.
Receiving YardsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsU 11.5 -114 11.5posted line · receiving yds
Noah Gray has a live NFL receiving yards market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: under 11.5 receiving yds priced at -114.
ReceptionsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsU 1.5 -196 1.5posted line · receptions
Noah Gray has a live NFL receptions market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: under 1.5 receptions priced at -196.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receptions (Alt) |
0.5 |
Over |
-313 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-185 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Noah Gray (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Gray is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.4% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday 21 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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