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NFL

Noah Gray

KC

Value call

Noah Gray has one live pick today: over 2.5 receptions that pays $658 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
14 in 100
Predicted
1.5 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 13.8% · before adjusting for past results 21.3% · the book's price implies 15.2% · gap -1.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Noah Gray
over 2.5 receptions
Receptions (Alt) Over 2.5 +558 (6.58) · $100→$658
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 14 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$65.80 Odds+558
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Gray is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 14 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 14%, the price says 15%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:39PM UTC
UNKNOWN
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
updated Oct 6, 2:30AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)21.3%13.8%15.2%6.58+6.1%

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AI Analysis

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Noah Gray (KC) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (+558)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Noah Gray (KC) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +558 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $65.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards114 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over28%tips tracked114

Noah Gray's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 114 times, typically around a 29.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions44 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over12%tips tracked44

Noah Gray's NFL receptions prop has been priced 44 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD20 lines trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked20

Noah Gray's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 20 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Noah Gray average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over +178 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Receiving Yards 11.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Receiving Yards 10.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Noah Gray (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Gray is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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