Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Greg Dortch is Over 1.5 on Total Touchdowns.
On Total Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 1 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 1%, the price says 1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:02PM UTC
NFL
Greg Dortch
BUF
Greg Dortch has one live pick today: Total Touchdowns Over 1.5 that pays $13,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Total Touchdowns
Over 1.5
+13000 (131.00) · $100→$13,100
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
1 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Total Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 1.2% · before adjusting for past results 2.1% · the book's price implies 0.8% · gap +0.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Total Touchdowns | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 131.00 | +1.3% |
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Greg Dortch (BUF) Over 1.5 Player tds over (+13000)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Greg Dortch (BUF) Over 1.5 Player tds over. It was priced at +13000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1310 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted 15.5typical line · receiving yds
tips tracked1
Greg Dortch's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 15.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
16%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3
Greg Dortch's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 16%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Greg Dortch (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Greg Dortch is Over 1.5 on Total Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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