Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 119.5 Player rush yds alternate (+182)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Saquon Barkley's betting line of Over 119.5 rushing yards is slightly risky given his recent performance and hit rates. Historically, Barkley's overall hit rate for this bet is only 12 out of 67, and his hit rate against Dallas is even lower at 1 out of 8. His recent performances also don't provide much confidence, with 0 hits in his last 3 games overall and at home.
However, Barkley's average rushing yards over the last 5 games (122.6 yards) is slightly over the betting line, and his average at home (132.2 yards) is significantly over the line. Barkley also gets a substantial number of carries per game (24.4 on average), which increases his chances of hitting the over.
While the model edge (0.0886) is not particularly high, the bet could still pay off if Barkley performs at his recent averages. This bet is a gamble that relies heavily