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The latest Bet Better model pick for Saquon Barkley is Over 119.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On the Rushing Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 44%, versus the book's implied 35%, for a model edge of +8.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
NFL

Saquon Barkley

PHI

+8.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 119.5 +182 (2.82)
+8.9% Edge
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Indoor
Fri 5 Sep, 12:20AM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Barkley spoke this offseason with retired running back Todd Gurley, who played for the Rams at the same time as new Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion, NFL.com's Bobby Kownack reports.
updated Jun 25, 2:24PM UTC · 25d old
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Model Probability
44.3%
Implied Probability
35.5%
Model Edge
+8.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)44.3%—35.5%2.26+8.9%

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AI Analysis

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Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 119.5 Player rush yds alternate (+182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Saquon Barkley's betting line of Over 119.5 rushing yards is slightly risky given his recent performance and hit rates. Historically, Barkley's overall hit rate for this bet is only 12 out of 67, and his hit rate against Dallas is even lower at 1 out of 8. His recent performances also don't provide much confidence, with 0 hits in his last 3 games overall and at home. However, Barkley's average rushing yards over the last 5 games (122.6 yards) is slightly over the betting line, and his average at home (132.2 yards) is significantly over the line. Barkley also gets a substantial number of carries per game (24.4 on average), which increases his chances of hitting the over. While the model edge (0.0886) is not particularly high, the bet could still pay off if Barkley performs at his recent averages. This bet is a gamble that relies heavily

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards2025 · 2 lines trackedNo line posted
119.5typical line · rushing yds
line range119.5–119.5model over44%tips tracked2

Saquon Barkley's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times through the 2025 season, typically around a 119.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–19.5tips tracked4

Saquon Barkley's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 25 Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Yards (Alt) 119.5 Over +182 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Saquon Barkley (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Saquon Barkley is Over 119.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.9% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles on Friday 5 September at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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