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NFL

Aaron Rodgers

PIT

Value call

Aaron Rodgers has one live pick today: over 189.5 passing yards that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
227.7 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 84.6% · before adjusting for past results 90.2% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +11.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Aaron Rodgers
over 189.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 189.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
HIGHWins about 85 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.70 Odds-270
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Rodgers is Over 189.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 85%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:41AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns while adding six yards on his only carry in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts.
updated Oct 12, 12:22AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)90.2%84.6%73.0%1.37+17.2%

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AI Analysis

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Aaron Rodgers Over 189.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-278)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Steelers are facing the Indianapolis Colts at home, and Aaron Rodgers is looking sharp this season. He has a great chance to throw for more than 189.5 passing yards against a Colts defense that can struggle against strong quarterbacks. Plus, playing at home gives Rodgers a nice boost, as he's more comfortable in his own stadium. One thing to watch is that the Colts have been improving lately, so it might be closer than expected. Still, our numbers show this is a strong pick, and Rodgers' experience should help him get the job done. Keep an eye on how well he connects with his receivers, but I think he can clear that passing yard mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Passing Yards146 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–224.5model over96%tips tracked146

Aaron Rodgers's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 146 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards44 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over58%tips tracked44

Aaron Rodgers's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 44 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD21 lines trackedNo line posted
10%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked21

Aaron Rodgers's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 21 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 10%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Aaron Rodgers average?How many rushing yards does Aaron Rodgers average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5 Over -370 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Rodgers (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Rodgers is Over 189.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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