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Today's EPL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Match

Free EPL picks across match result, handicaps, totals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

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12 matches coming up, and the first pick of every match is free

Best EPL bet today: Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Brentford_NA at +120, lean confidence. As Brentford prepares to host Chelsea, the buzz around this matchup is palpable. 12 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Chelsea v Brentford
Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Brentford_NA +120
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.9%
$50 returns$110.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Chelsea v BrentfordCHE v BRE Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Brentford_NA Lean48% chance +120
Aston Villa v Tottenham HotspurAVL v TOT Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur: Aston Villa Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Aston Villa_NA Lean44% chance +174
Ipswich Town v EvertonIPS v EVE Ipswich Town at Everton: Everton Spread -1 Lean43% chance +125
Sunderland v Manchester CitySUN v MCI Sunderland at Manchester City: Under Total Goals 3.5 High67% chance -179
Crystal Palace v Leeds UnitedCRY v LEE Crystal Palace at Leeds United: Crystal Palace Spread 0.75 Lean53% chance -135
Manchester United v FulhamMUN v FUL Manchester United at Fulham: Fulham Spread 0.75 High61% chance -175
Leeds United v ArsenalLEE v ARS Leeds United at Arsenal: Leeds United Spread 2 High71% chance -238
Fulham v Ipswich TownFUL v IPS Fulham at Ipswich Town: Fulham Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Fulham_NA High61% chance -114
Brentford v Aston VillaBRE v AVL Brentford at Aston Villa: Aston Villa Spread 2.5 High94% chance -3333
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester UnitedTOT v MUN Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United: Tottenham Hotspur Spread 4.5 High97% chance -5000
Nottingham Forest v Crystal PalaceNOT v CRY Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace: Nottingham Forest Spread 2.5 High94% chance -3333
Manchester City v LiverpoolMCI v LIV Manchester City at Liverpool: Manchester City Spread 2.5 High95% chance -3333
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
80 more picks on the board
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EPLCHE vs. BRE 2026-09-18 19:00
Chelsea Away
vs.
Home Brentford
Last 5ChelseaDLWWLBrentfordDDDWD
Full preview: Chelsea at Brentford →
Show Picks
Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Brentford_NA
Chance to win 47.9%
The price says 43.6%
Best price +120

Brentford vs Chelsea: Brentford Draw No Bet (+120)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Chelsea, the buzz around this matchup is palpable. While Chelsea has historically had the upper hand, recent trends suggest a shift. Brentford's home form is promising, boasting an average of 1.8 goals per game at the Gtech Community Stadium, while conceding a mere 0.6. Their attack is creating chances, averaging 15.8 shots per game, which could exploit Chelsea's defensive frailties, especially given the Blues’ shaky away form. Chelsea, on the other hand, has averaged only 1.2 goals in their last five away matches and has struggled against Brentford in recent encounters. With the Bees desperate to turn the tide in their head-to-head record, backing them in the Draw No Bet market presents a compelling opportunity. The xG stats also suggest Brentford has the offensive edge, making this a ripe moment for a potential upset.

Chelsea at Brentford · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.6%
Chelsea at Brentford · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 32.8%
Chelsea at Brentford · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 32.8%
Chelsea at Brentford · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 57.1%
Chelsea at Brentford · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 32.4%
Chelsea at Brentford · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 95.4%
Chelsea at Brentford · Total Corners 8.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 66.6%
EPLAVL vs. TOT 2026-09-19 11:30
Full preview: Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur →
Show Picks
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur: Aston Villa Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Aston Villa_NA
Chance to win 44.0%
The price says 35.2%
Best price +174

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Draw No Bet (+174)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Tottenham Hotspur prepares to face Aston Villa, the form book heavily favors the visitors. Spurs have struggled at home, managing just one win in their last five, and their attack has been lackluster, averaging a mere 0.2 expected goals over that span. Meanwhile, Aston Villa, despite their own inconsistencies, have consistently found ways to challenge stronger opponents. Their recent record against Spurs shows resilience, with two wins in their last five meetings. Moreover, Villa’s ability to create chances—averaging nearly 11 shots per game away—could exploit Spurs' shaky defense. The Draw No Bet market presents an appealing option considering Villa's upward trajectory compared to Tottenham's recent slump. With the odds reflecting a significant edge, backing Aston Villa feels like a smart play as they look to capitalize on Tottenham's vulnerabilities.

Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 36.5%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.4%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.4%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Total Goals 6.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 95.0%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.0%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.0%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 77.2%
EPLIPS vs. EVE 2026-09-19 14:00
vs.
Home Everton
Last 5Ipswich TownWLLWEvertonDDDWL
Full preview: Ipswich Town at Everton →
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Ipswich Town at Everton: Everton Spread -1
Chance to win 43.2%
The price says 40.6%
Best price +125

Everton vs Ipswich Town: Everton -1 Goal Handicap (+125)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to face Ipswich Town, a deeper dive into their recent form suggests a favorable outcome for the home side. While Everton has struggled at home lately with a record of just one win in five, they’ve managed a respectable average of 1.8 goals at Goodison Park. Their attacking metrics show they create plenty of opportunities, averaging nearly 14 shots per game. Ipswich, on the other hand, has been inconsistent on the road, with only two wins in their last five away matches. Both teams have similar xG figures, but Everton's home advantage and their historical edge over Ipswich (1-1-0 in their last five encounters) could tip the scales. Given Everton’s potential to exploit Ipswich’s defensive vulnerabilities, backing them to win by at least two goals seems a savvy move. Expect the Toffees to rise to the occasion and cover the handicap.

Ipswich Town at Everton · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 54.1%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 54.1%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 72.2%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 77.6%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 43.2%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Spread 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 95.4%
EPLSUN vs. MCI 2026-09-20 13:00
Sunderland Away
vs.
Full preview: Sunderland at Manchester City →
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Sunderland at Manchester City: Under Total Goals 3.5
Chance to win 67.2%
The price says 61.2%
Best price -179

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-179)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Manchester City gears up to face Sunderland, the expectation is for a tactical showdown rather than a goal-fest. City has been impressive at home, averaging 2 goals scored while conceding just 0.6, reinforcing a trend of defensive solidity. Their last five home matches have seen them produce an average expected goal (xG) of virtually nil against, illustrating their ability to stifle opponents. On the other hand, Sunderland has struggled to find the net, managing just 1 goal per game in their recent outings. With both teams trending towards lower-scoring matches, it’s hard to envision a four-goal thriller here. Given City's formidable defense and Sunderland's scoring woes, betting on the 'Under 3.5' total goals feels like a smart play. Expect a tight match where goals might be at a premium.

Sunderland at Manchester City · Spread 2 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 61.0%
Sunderland at Manchester City · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 16.4%
Sunderland at Manchester City · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 16.4%
Sunderland at Manchester City · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 51.7%
Sunderland at Manchester City · Total Corners 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 73.4%
Sunderland at Manchester City · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 12.0%
EPLCRY vs. LEE 2026-09-20 13:00
Full preview: Crystal Palace at Leeds United →
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Crystal Palace at Leeds United: Crystal Palace Spread 0.75
Chance to win 52.8%
The price says 52.8%
Best price -135

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +0.75 Goal Handicap (-135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, recent form suggests a competitive edge for the visitors. Leeds has shown inconsistency lately, managing only two wins in their last five, and while they’ve bolstered their home record, they’ve struggled against Palace, with a 1-2-2 record in their last five meetings. On the flip side, Palace may only have a single win in five, but they’ve demonstrated resilience, especially away, averaging a respectable 1.4 goals per game despite conceding 2.6. Leeds averages an impressive 2.4 goals at home, yet their defensive lapses—allowing 1.2 goals—could be a critical factor. With Palace’s disciplined approach and a recent xG suggesting they can create real chances, betting on Crystal Palace to cover the 0.75 handicap seems like a savvy play. Their ability to frustrate Leeds could just tip the scales in their favor on Sunday.

Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.8%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 68.0%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 21.7%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 21.7%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 43.8%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.4%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.4%
EPLMUN vs. FUL 2026-09-20 15:30
vs.
Home Fulham
Last 5Manchester UnitedLDWLWFulhamDLLLW
Full preview: Manchester United at Fulham →
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Manchester United at Fulham: Fulham Spread 0.75
Chance to win 61.3%
The price says 58.4%
Best price -175

Fulham vs Manchester United: Fulham +0.75 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Fulham hosts Manchester United, the backdrop is intriguing. Despite a rocky home record recently, Fulham has shown a resilience that can't be overlooked. They’ve netted an average of 1.4 goals at home, while their defense, allowing 1.4, indicates a fine balance. Meanwhile, United's away form has been shaky, scoring an average of just 1.2 goals. What stands out is Fulham's pressing game; their 17.4 shots per home match reflect a proactive approach, creating chances even if xG stats don’t capture it fully. United may have a better recent record against Fulham, but this match presents a ripe opportunity for Fulham to capitalize on their home advantage. With a 0.75 handicap, backing Fulham feels like a savvy play, especially as they seek to build momentum and challenge their more established rivals. Expect a tightly contested clash that might just tip in Fulham's favor.

Manchester United at Fulham · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 36.4%
Manchester United at Fulham · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 60.7%
Manchester United at Fulham · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 28.0%
Manchester United at Fulham · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 28.0%
Manchester United at Fulham · Spread 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 90.5%
Manchester United at Fulham · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.5%
Manchester United at Fulham · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 24.4%
Manchester United at Fulham · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 24.4%
EPLLEE vs. ARS 2026-10-10 11:30
vs.
Home Arsenal
Last 5Leeds UnitedWDDWLArsenalWWWWW
Full preview: Leeds United at Arsenal →
Show Picks
Leeds United at Arsenal: Leeds United Spread 2
Chance to win 70.9%
The price says 63.8%
Best price -238

Arsenal vs Leeds United: Leeds United +2 Goal Handicap (-238)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Arsenal welcomes Leeds United, the Gunners are riding high, boasting a flawless home record and a staggering average of two goals per game while conceding a mere 0.2 at the Emirates. However, Leeds has shown some resilience lately, even with a mixed bag of results. They’ve averaged 1.4 goals across their last five outings, and while their head-to-head against Arsenal isn't pretty, there's a faint glimmer of hope. The home side may dominate possession, but Leeds can exploit any lapses in Arsenal's defense. Given the handicap of 2, it seems reasonable that Leeds can keep the scoreline respectable against a team that might underestimate them. With Arsenal's recent tendency to ease off after securing leads, a bet on Leeds to cover the handicap feels like a smart play in what could be an intriguing clash.

Leeds United at Arsenal · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.0%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 17.7%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 17.7%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 11.6%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Spread 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 94.2%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 9.9%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 9.9%
Leeds United at Arsenal · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 55.6%
EPLFUL vs. IPS 2026-10-10 14:00
Fulham Away
vs.
Last 5FulhamDLLLWIpswich TownWLLW
Full preview: Fulham at Ipswich Town →
Show Picks
Fulham at Ipswich Town: Fulham Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Fulham_NA
Chance to win 61.2%
The price says 51.3%
Best price -114

Ipswich Town vs Fulham: Fulham Draw No Bet (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Ipswich Town welcomes Fulham, the stage is set for an intriguing clash. Ipswich has shown resilience at home, boasting a three-match win streak, but their record against Fulham is troubling—two losses in their last five encounters. While Ipswich averages 1.8 goals at home, their defense has leaked 1.2, hinting at vulnerabilities. Fulham, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, managing just one win in their last five away games. However, they come into this contest with a strong xG average and a better attacking threat, averaging 16.2 shots per match. With Ipswich's inconsistent defense and Fulham's potential to capitalize on chances, backing Fulham in the Draw No Bet market feels prudent. They’ve shown they can disrupt Ipswich's rhythm, and this match could well tilt in their favor.

Fulham at Ipswich Town · Spread 0.25 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.1%
Fulham at Ipswich Town · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.9%
Fulham at Ipswich Town · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.9%
Fulham at Ipswich Town · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 53.4%
Fulham at Ipswich Town · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 57.0%
EPLBRE vs. AVL 2026-10-10 14:00
Brentford Away
vs.
Show Picks
Brentford at Aston Villa: Aston Villa Spread 2.5
Chance to win 93.5%
The price says 89.6%
Best price -3333

Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa +2.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Aston Villa’s recent form at home shows a mixed bag, but they’ve been a tough nut to crack for Brentford. Despite struggling to find the back of the net lately, Villa’s underlying stats hint at a potential resurgence. In their last five home games, they’ve averaged 2 goals, despite an xG of 0, which suggests they’ve been unlucky not to score more. On the flip side, Brentford's away woes are alarming, with only one win in their last five and a concerning average of 1.8 goals conceded. Moreover, Villa has a solid record against Brentford, winning two out of their last five encounters. When you factor in Villa's home advantage and Brentford's defensive frailty, backing Aston Villa to cover a 2.5 handicap feels like a smart play. With an implied probability of nearly 90%, the odds heavily favor Villa making a statement in this matchup.

Brentford at Aston Villa · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 94.0%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 51.8%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Total Goals 6.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 95.0%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 77.9%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 38.4%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 38.4%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.1%
Brentford at Aston Villa · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.1%
EPLTOT vs. MUN 2026-10-10 16:30
Show Picks
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United: Tottenham Hotspur Spread 4.5
Chance to win 97.4%
The price says 92.2%
Best price -5000

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham Hotspur +4.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

When Manchester United hosts Tottenham, recent form heavily favors Spurs, especially in the context of a 4.5 handicap. United’s home record shows a mixed bag, with just two wins in their last five, and they’ve struggled against Tottenham historically, managing only one win in their last five encounters. On the flip side, Tottenham has been resilient, even if their scoring has dropped lately. While United averages 2.6 goals at home, their expected goal output hasn’t been stellar, indicating they may not capitalize fully on their chances. Tottenham, despite their own struggles, can latch onto the opportunities United presents. The recent trends and head-to-head stats suggest Spurs will comfortably navigate this line, making the bet on Tottenham Hotspur +4.5 an enticing prospect for those looking to capitalize on current form and historical context.

Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 57.1%
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United · Spread 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 93.4%
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 21.2%
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 21.2%
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.9%
EPLNOT vs. CRY 2026-10-11 13:00
Show Picks
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace: Nottingham Forest Spread 2.5
Chance to win 94.3%
The price says 89.7%
Best price -3333

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest +2.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Crystal Palace prepares to host Nottingham Forest, recent form tells a compelling story. Palace has struggled at home, managing just one win in their last five matches and averaging a mere 1.4 goals per game while conceding 2.6. Their xG numbers paint an even bleaker picture, consistently lagging behind their opponents. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest, despite a mixed bag of results, is picking up steam with a solid away performance averaging 2.8 goals in their last five away matches. Their ability to create chances on the road, reflected in their 14.6 shots per game, sets them apart. With Palace's defensive lapses and Forest's attacking prowess, betting on Nottingham Forest to cover the -2.5 handicap seems both savvy and justified. If recent trends hold, Forest could very well capitalize on Palace's vulnerabilities, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 50.0%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.8%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.8%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 71.6%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 51.2%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 35.7%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 35.7%
Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Total Goals 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 94.0%
EPLMCI vs. LIV 2026-10-11 15:30
vs.
Home Liverpool
Show Picks
Manchester City at Liverpool: Manchester City Spread 2.5
Chance to win 94.8%
The price says 90.2%
Best price -3333

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City +2.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

When Liverpool hosts Manchester City, the recent form tells a compelling story. Liverpool has struggled at Anfield, with just one win in their last five home matches, averaging a mere 1.4 goals while conceding 1.0. Their attacking creativity seems stifled, as indicated by their 17.6 shots per game but only managing 5.8 on target. On the flip side, City has been a powerhouse on the road, netting 2.0 goals per game in their last five away fixtures and boasting a sturdy defense that allows just 0.8. The expected goals stats favor City, who consistently outshoot opponents and create significant chances. With a dominant away record and Liverpool's vulnerabilities laid bare, backing City to cover the 2.5 handicap seems not just reasonable but likely. They’ve shown the ability to exploit defenses, and this matchup could amplify that trend.

Manchester City at Liverpool · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 91.2%
Manchester City at Liverpool · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 40.1%
Manchester City at Liverpool · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.8%
Manchester City at Liverpool · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.3%
Manchester City at Liverpool · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.3%

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Quick answer

What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are model-generated predictions for Premier League betting markets including 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, totals (over/under goals) and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming EPL match with predictions across all major markets. Expand any match to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

EPL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
1X2 (Match Result) Home win, draw or away win over the full match. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Asian Handicap Win by more than a handicap margin, with the draw removed. When one side is expected to dominate or the match should be close.
Totals (O/U Goals) Over or under the combined goals scored in the match. Match tempo, attacking form, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — shots, goals, assists, cards. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read EPL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a match. Matches are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that fixture.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated EPL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per match estimate true outcome probabilities across every major EPL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

EPL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are model-generated predictions for Premier League betting markets including match result, handicaps, totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between EPL picks and EPL best bets?

EPL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming matches. EPL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Picks.

What types of EPL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, totals (over/under goals), and player props (individual stats such as shots and goals). Match markets and player markets are displayed together within each fixture, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are EPL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As kick-off approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between gameweeks or when no upcoming matches qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use EPL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the EPL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee EPL picks will win?

No. EPL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

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