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Today's EPL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Match

Free EPL picks across match result, handicaps, totals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

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13 matches coming up, and the first pick of every match is free

Best EPL bet today: Ibrahim Mbaye Yes player_to_receive_card_Yes_NA To Receive a Card (Paris Saint-Germain) at +1000, long shot confidence. As we look ahead to Nottingham Forest's clash with Aston Villa, all eyes are on Ibrahim Mbaye in the card market. 13 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Ibrahim Mbaye Yes player_to_receive_card_Yes_NA To Receive a Card (Paris Saint-Germain) +1000
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win26.6%
$50 returns$550.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Nottingham Forest v Aston VillaNOT v AVL Ibrahim Mbaye Yes player_to_receive_card_Yes_NA To Receive a Card (Paris Saint-Germain) Long-shot27% chance +1000
Ipswich Town v Crystal PalaceIPS v CRY Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace Spread -1 Lean53% chance +155
Brentford v BournemouthBRE v BOU Adam Smith Over 1.5 Shots (AFC Bournemouth) Long-shot17% chance +1600
Fulham v LiverpoolFUL v LIV Fulham at Liverpool: Fulham Spread 1 Lean53% chance +115
Everton v Tottenham HotspurEVE v TOT Everton at Tottenham Hotspur: Everton Spread 0.75 High72% chance -175
Arsenal v SunderlandARS v SUN Kevin Danso Yes player_goal_scorer_anytime_Yes_NA Anytime Goal (Lens) Long-shot5% chance +4000
Manchester City v Manchester UnitedMCI v MUN Manchester City at Manchester United: Manchester City Spread 0 High67% chance -175
Newcastle United v Leeds UnitedNEW v LEE Newcastle United at Leeds United: Newcastle United Spread 0 Lean51% chance +100
Chelsea v BrentfordCHE v BRE Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Spread 0 Lean56% chance -105
Aston Villa v Tottenham HotspurAVL v TOT Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur: Aston Villa Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Aston Villa_NA Lean55% chance +174
Ipswich Town v EvertonIPS v EVE Ipswich Town at Everton: Everton Spread -1 Lean56% chance +135
Crystal Palace v Leeds UnitedCRY v LEE Crystal Palace at Leeds United: Crystal Palace Spread 3.5 High97% chance -5000
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
62 more picks on the board
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EPLNOT vs. AVL 2026-09-12 14:00
Full preview: Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa →
Show Picks
Ibrahim Mbaye Yes player_to_receive_card_Yes_NA To Receive a Card (Paris Saint-Germain)
Chance to win 26.6%
The price says 9.1%
Best price +1000

Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal) Yes To Be Carded (+1000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As we look ahead to Nottingham Forest's clash with Aston Villa, all eyes are on Ibrahim Mbaye in the card market. Playing away, Mbaye has quietly established himself as a player often on the fringes of action, yet the intensity of Premier League fixtures can quickly change the narrative. While he hasn’t picked up a card recently—his last five outings show a clean slate—this could serve as a double-edged sword. The pressure of facing a well-organized Villa side might force him into situations where he feels compelled to break up play. Given the model’s prediction of him receiving a card at a respectable 31%, it hints at the potential for a crucial foul or two. Plus, with the stakes heightened in a fiercely contested match, the chance of Mbaye stepping up and making a tactical foul is more than just a possibility; it’s a narrative worth betting on.

Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Spread 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 88.0%
Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 58.9%
Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Total Goals 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 93.1%
Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Total Corners 8.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 66.3%
Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.6%
Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 73.7%
EPLIPS vs. CRY 2026-09-12 14:00
Full preview: Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace →
Show Picks
Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace Spread -1
Chance to win 52.7%
The price says 36.3%
Best price +155

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town: Crystal Palace -1 Goal Handicap (+155)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Crystal Palace prepares to host Ipswich Town, recent form suggests a strong play on Palace at -1 for the handicap. Despite a rocky home record, Palace has secured two wins against Ipswich in their last five encounters, demonstrating a psychological edge. The Eagles have averaged 1.2 goals at home, but more importantly, they’ve managed to stifle opponents, allowing 1.8 goals at Selhurst Park. On the other hand, Ipswich is struggling, averaging just 1 goal away while conceding 2.8, painting a bleak picture for their defense. With Palace firing an average of 11.6 shots at home and Ipswich’s away woes evident, they might find it hard to keep pace. Given this context, a handicap bet on Crystal Palace at -1 looks promising as they aim to assert dominance against a reeling Ipswich side. Expect a focused performance and hopefully a comfortable win for the hosts.

Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 67.9%
Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 50.5%
Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 50.5%
Ipswich Town at Crystal Palace · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 52.4%
EPLBRE vs. BOU 2026-09-12 14:00
Brentford Away
vs.
Last 5BrentfordDDWDD
Full preview: Brentford at Bournemouth →
Show Picks
Adam Smith Over 1.5 Shots (AFC Bournemouth)
Chance to win 17.2%
The price says 5.9%
Best price +1600

Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 1.5 Shots (+1600)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between Bournemouth and Brentford, Adam Smith might be an intriguing name to watch for the Over 1.5 total shots prop. While his recent averages of 0.2 shots overall and away don’t jump off the page, context is key here. Smith, as a full-back, often finds himself in advanced positions, especially against teams like Brentford that can leave gaps when they push forward. Bournemouth will likely need to be aggressive at home, and with Smith's ability to exploit defensive weaknesses, he could see more opportunities to pull the trigger. In matches where the attacking flow is critical, his role becomes pivotal, and with a slight model edge on this line, there’s room for optimism. If he can find himself in the right spots, this could be the match where he finally breaks out and makes a mark, making the Over 1.5 shots worth a look.

EPLFUL vs. LIV 2026-09-12 14:00
Fulham Away
vs.
Home Liverpool
Last 5FulhamLLLWDLiverpoolWDDDL
Full preview: Fulham at Liverpool →
Show Picks
Fulham at Liverpool: Fulham Spread 1
Chance to win 53.1%
The price says 43.4%
Best price +115

Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +1 Goal Handicap (+115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Liverpool may be the formidable giants of Anfield, but their home form has been shaky lately, with just one win in the last five matches—hardly the fortress we expect. Their xG numbers are telling a story of underperformance, as they've managed an average of only 1.8 goals while conceding the same. On the flip side, Fulham’s recent struggles on the road can’t overshadow their resilience; they’ve faced tough opposition and held their own against Liverpool in prior encounters, going 2-2-1 in their last five meetings. Plus, they’re due for a turnaround after being held to just 0.2 goals per game away from home recently. With Liverpool's defense leaking opportunities, taking Fulham +1 on the handicap feels like a smart play, especially given the odds and their potential to exploit any cracks in the home side's armor.

Fulham at Liverpool · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 17.0%
Fulham at Liverpool · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 55.7%
Fulham at Liverpool · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 14.7%
Fulham at Liverpool · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 14.7%
Fulham at Liverpool · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 19.5%
Fulham at Liverpool · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 19.5%
EPLEVE vs. TOT 2026-09-12 16:30
Everton Away
vs.
Last 5EvertonDDWLLTottenham HotspurDLLWL
Full preview: Everton at Tottenham Hotspur →
Show Picks
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur: Everton Spread 0.75
Chance to win 71.9%
The price says 58.9%
Best price -175

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton: Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Tottenham Hotspur prepares to host Everton, recent form hints at a potential upset. Spurs have struggled at home, only managing a win in their last five matches and averaging a meager 0.4 goals per game. With a high xG of 0, their attacking woes are evident. Conversely, Everton, while inconsistent, have shown resilience, scoring an average of 1.2 goals in their last five outings. Their recent matchups against Spurs reveal a competitive spirit, with Everton clinching a win in one of the last five encounters. The 0.75 handicap offers a cushion, making it an inviting prospect. With Tottenham’s defensive frailties and Everton's ability to scrap for points, betting on Everton to cover this line seems prudent. Expect an intense clash where the Toffees might just surprise their hosts, especially with Spurs battling their own demons.

Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.0%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.4%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.4%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 50.0%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.0%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.0%
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 45.3%
EPLARS vs. SUN 2026-09-12 19:00
Arsenal Away
vs.
Home Sunderland
Last 5ArsenalWWWWWSunderlandDWLWW
Full preview: Arsenal at Sunderland →
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Kevin Danso Yes player_goal_scorer_anytime_Yes_NA Anytime Goal (Lens)
Chance to win 5.1%
The price says 2.4%
Best price +4000

Kevin Danso (Sunderland) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+4000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Sunderland welcomes Arsenal, all eyes might not immediately gravitate towards Kevin Danso, but here’s why he deserves consideration in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Though his recent scoring form hasn’t been notable—averaging no goals in his last five games—there's a twist when he plays at home. Danso has shown a bit more promise with 1.2 shots per game at the Stadium of Light, hinting at a potential spark against a defense that isn’t impenetrable. Against a resilient but sometimes vulnerable Arsenal backline, this could be the moment for Danso to break free. With Sunderland's need for points and the home crowd behind him, he might just find that extra motivation. The odds may seem long, but in football, surprises are always lurking around the corner. If Danso can convert even one of those home shots, we could be celebrating a thrilling upset.

EPLMCI vs. MUN 2026-09-13 15:30
Full preview: Manchester City at Manchester United →
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Manchester City at Manchester United: Manchester City Spread 0
Chance to win 66.7%
The price says 58.4%
Best price -175

Manchester United vs Manchester City: Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As the Manchester derby approaches, all signs point to Manchester City having the upper hand. While both teams boast solid recent records, City’s ability to score on the road—averaging 2.4 goals away—demonstrates their attacking prowess. With an xG of 0 in their last five games, they’ve still managed to create clear opportunities, reflected in their 19.8 shots per match. Conversely, United has shown vulnerability at the back, conceding an average of 1.8 goals at home. Their defensive lapses are compounded by City’s relentless high press and slick passing, which can exploit gaps in United's backline. The head-to-head history leans slightly in United's favor at home, but City's current form, scoring efficiency, and overall trend make them a compelling pick in the handicap market. With City at level pegging, the potential for a victory seems tantalizingly close.

Manchester City at Manchester United · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 58.9%
Manchester City at Manchester United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.3%
Manchester City at Manchester United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.3%
Manchester City at Manchester United · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 33.8%
Manchester City at Manchester United · Total Goals 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 75.6%
Manchester City at Manchester United · Total Corners 8.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 66.6%
EPLNEW vs. LEE 2026-09-14 19:00
Full preview: Newcastle United at Leeds United →
Show Picks
Newcastle United at Leeds United: Newcastle United Spread 0
Chance to win 51.1%
The price says 45.8%
Best price +100

Leeds United vs Newcastle United: Newcastle United +0 Goal Handicap (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Leeds United prepares to host Newcastle, the trends suggest it could be a challenging outing for the home side. Leeds has struggled lately, with a home record of just 2-2-1 in their last five matches, scoring an average of only 1.6 goals at home. In contrast, Newcastle has been more productive on the road, averaging 1.8 goals in their last five matches, despite some inconsistency. Their recent head-to-head record against Leeds also favors them, as they’ve won two of the last three encounters. Leeds' xG numbers have been dismal, and while they may have a slight edge at home, their inconsistency in front of goal and Newcastle’s ability to find the net puts the Magpies in a strong position. Betting on Newcastle to at least draw seems wise, given these recent performances and the historical context.

Newcastle United at Leeds United · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 46.8%
Newcastle United at Leeds United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 33.0%
Newcastle United at Leeds United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 33.0%
Newcastle United at Leeds United · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 76.6%
Newcastle United at Leeds United · Total Goals 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 92.1%
EPLCHE vs. BRE 2026-09-18 19:00
Chelsea Away
vs.
Home Brentford
Show Picks
Chelsea at Brentford: Brentford Spread 0
Chance to win 55.8%
The price says 46.4%
Best price -105

Brentford vs Chelsea: Brentford +0 Goal Handicap (-105)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Chelsea, there's a compelling case to back the Bees on a handicap of 0. Brentford has shown resilience at home, averaging 1.8 goals while conceding just 0.6 in their last five home matches. They’ve been peppering the opposition with an average of 15.8 shots per game, which highlights their attacking intent. Chelsea, despite their recent form, have struggled to find the net away, averaging only 1.2 goals while conceding 2. This matchup is crucial; Brentford's previous encounters against Chelsea reveal a trend of close contests, with Brentford managing to draw on several occasions. Given Chelsea's inconsistencies and Brentford's solid home form, taking Brentford on the handicap feels like a savvy play. The Bees are primed to disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm, making this a ripe opportunity for an upset.

Chelsea at Brentford · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 47.5%
Chelsea at Brentford · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 35.0%
Chelsea at Brentford · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 94.5%
Chelsea at Brentford · Total Goals 6.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 94.3%
Chelsea at Brentford · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 81.3%
EPLAVL vs. TOT 2026-09-19 11:30
Show Picks
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur: Aston Villa Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Aston Villa_NA
Chance to win 54.5%
The price says 35.2%
Best price +174

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Draw No Bet (+174)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Tottenham Hotspur hosts Aston Villa, there’s a compelling narrative brewing for the visitors in the Draw No Bet market. Spurs have stumbled recently, managing just one win in their last five home matches, averaging a meager 0.4 goals scored. Their attacking woes are glaring, with an xG of zero in those games—a shocking stat for a team of their stature. On the flip side, Aston Villa has shown resilience, securing two wins in their last five, albeit with some inconsistency. However, their recent record against Spurs is encouraging, having taken points in three of the last five encounters. With Tottenham’s alarming trend of conceding 1.4 goals per game at home, Aston Villa’s odds of capitalizing on this vulnerability look promising. In a game of this nature, backing Villa feels like a savvy move, especially given their potential to either secure a win or leave with at least a draw.

Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 36.9%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.5%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.5%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 57.0%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Total Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 77.2%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.4%
Aston Villa at Tottenham Hotspur · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.4%
EPLIPS vs. EVE 2026-09-19 14:00
vs.
Home Everton
Show Picks
Ipswich Town at Everton: Everton Spread -1
Chance to win 55.9%
The price says 38.8%
Best price +135

Everton vs Ipswich Town: Everton -1 Goal Handicap (+135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Everton faces Ipswich Town, the matchup hints at a compelling narrative favoring the home side. Despite a rocky home record lately, Everton's scoring average of 1.8 goals per game at Goodison Park suggests they can find the net, especially against an Ipswich team that’s been struggling away, conceding an alarming 2.8 goals per match in their last five outings. Everton’s xG numbers might not leap off the page, but their consistent shot volume—averaging 13.6 shots at home—indicates they’re creating chances. Ipswich, meanwhile, has been flat with just 1.2 goals scored on the road and a concerning lack of creativity; they average only 1 assist per game in their last five. With Everton looking to bounce back and Ipswich faltering, a -1 handicap seems not just plausible but a smart bet in this context. Expect the Toffees to come away with a comfortable win.

Ipswich Town at Everton · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 53.1%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 53.1%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 71.4%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 52.0%
Ipswich Town at Everton · Both Teams to Score Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 46.7%
EPLCRY vs. LEE 2026-09-20 13:00
Show Picks
Crystal Palace at Leeds United: Crystal Palace Spread 3.5
Chance to win 97.3%
The price says 92.2%
Best price -5000

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Looking at the matchup between Leeds United and Crystal Palace, it’s hard to ignore the recent trends. Leeds has struggled at home, averaging just 1.6 goals while conceding 0.4 in their last five games at Elland Road. They’ve shown meager offensive output with an average of only 10.6 shots per game, which translates to a concerning xG of 0. In contrast, Crystal Palace, while also inconsistent, boasts a slightly better scoring rate away from home, averaging 1 goal and generating 10 shots per match. Their recent form against Leeds, with a record of 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five encounters, indicates they can hold their own. Given these dynamics, betting on Crystal Palace to cover the 3.5 handicap feels like a shrewd move, especially considering Leeds’ scoring woes and Palace’s ability to grind out results.

Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Spread 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 91.9%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 50.0%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.0%
Crystal Palace at Leeds United · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.0%
EPLMUN vs. FUL 2026-09-20 15:30
vs.
Home Fulham
Show Picks
Manchester United at Fulham: Fulham Spread 0.75
Chance to win 66.8%
The price says 58.0%
Best price -179

Fulham vs Manchester United: Fulham +0.75 Goal Handicap (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Fulham prepares to welcome Manchester United, the stage is set for what could be an intriguing battle. While Manchester has been solid away, with a 3-1-1 record in their last five, Fulham’s home form reveals a persistent resilience, highlighted by a more favorable 2-0-3 when facing strong opponents. The Cottagers have averaged 1.4 goals at home, a respectable tally that suggests they can find the net against a United defense that’s not infallible. Moreover, Fulham's attack, bolstered by consistent shot totals, demonstrates they can create meaningful chances, even if their xG numbers haven’t reflected it lately. Coupled with a 1.4 goals against average at home, this match-up feels ripe for Fulham to at least secure a draw, making the 0.75 handicap a tempting option. With the crowd behind them, they could very well upset the odds against the Red Devils.

Manchester United at Fulham · Draw No Bet Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 36.4%
Manchester United at Fulham · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 28.0%
Manchester United at Fulham · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 28.0%
Manchester United at Fulham · Total Goals 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 60.7%
Manchester United at Fulham · Spread 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 90.5%
Manchester United at Fulham · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 24.4%
Manchester United at Fulham · Head to Head (3-Way) Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 24.4%

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Quick answer

What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are model-generated predictions for Premier League betting markets including 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, totals (over/under goals) and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming EPL match with predictions across all major markets. Expand any match to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

EPL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
1X2 (Match Result) Home win, draw or away win over the full match. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Asian Handicap Win by more than a handicap margin, with the draw removed. When one side is expected to dominate or the match should be close.
Totals (O/U Goals) Over or under the combined goals scored in the match. Match tempo, attacking form, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — shots, goals, assists, cards. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read EPL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a match. Matches are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that fixture.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated EPL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per match estimate true outcome probabilities across every major EPL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

EPL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are model-generated predictions for Premier League betting markets including match result, handicaps, totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between EPL picks and EPL best bets?

EPL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming matches. EPL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Picks.

What types of EPL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, totals (over/under goals), and player props (individual stats such as shots and goals). Match markets and player markets are displayed together within each fixture, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are EPL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As kick-off approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between gameweeks or when no upcoming matches qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use EPL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the EPL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee EPL picks will win?

No. EPL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

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