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NFL

KC Concepcion

CLE

Value call

KC Concepcion has one live pick today: under 41.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
49 in 100
Predicted
32.9 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 49.0% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -4.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
KC Concepcion
under 41.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 41.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 49 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for KC Concepcion is Under 41.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 49%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 18, 6:01PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
updated Oct 16, 6:27PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards71.5%49.0%53.2%1.99+18.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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KC Concepcion (CLE) Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cleveland Browns play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 18 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is KC Concepcion (CLE) Under 41.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (26 picks) 73.1% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

KC Concepcion's lines for Sun 18 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receiving Yards 41.5

KC Concepcion's receiving yards line is 41.5.

Receiving Yards 40.5

KC Concepcion's receiving yards line is 40.5.

Receptions 4.5

KC Concepcion's receptions line is 4.5.

Receiving Yards 39.5

KC Concepcion's receiving yards line is 39.5.

Receiving Yards 38.5

KC Concepcion's receiving yards line is 38.5.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards51 lines trackedNo line posted
39.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–89.5model over57%tips tracked51

KC Concepcion's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 51 times, typically around a 39.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–5.5tips tracked5

KC Concepcion's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 5.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions19 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–6.5model over41%tips tracked19

KC Concepcion's NFL receptions prop has been priced 19 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receiving Yards 40.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receiving Yards 39.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receiving Yards 38.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Receptions — — — Pending

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About This Player

KC Concepcion (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 73.1% on tracked KC Concepcion picks. The latest model pick for KC Concepcion is Under 41.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns on Sunday 18 October at Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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