Ray Davis (BUF) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Ray Davis to rush for under 21.5 yards seems statistically sound based on his recent performance and trends. Looking at his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, he has consistently fallen short of this mark, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, 3/10, and 8/20 respectively. His hit rate at home is also low, with him hitting the mark only 5 times out of 11 and 4 times out of 10 in the last 20 and 10 home games respectively. While he has a slightly better hit rate against Miami, it's still not convincing, with a 1/2 record both overall and at home. The only positive streak is against Miami at home, but it's based on a single game. Coupled with the model edge of 0.1799 favoring the under, it suggests that Davis is statistically unlikely to exceed