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NFL

DJ Moore

BUF

Value call

DJ Moore has one live pick today: over 14.5 receiving yards that pays $111 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
97 in 100
Predicted
50.3 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 96.8% · before adjusting for past results 97.9% · the book's price implies 90.1% · gap +6.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
DJ Moore
over 14.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 -909 (1.11) · $100→$111
Value call
HIGHWins about 97 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$11.10 Odds-909
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DJ Moore is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 97 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 97%, the price says 90%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 4:24PM UTC
QUESTIONABLE
Moore (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Rams, Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News reports.
updated Oct 10, 6:05PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)97.9%96.8%90.1%1.11+7.8%

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AI Analysis

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: DJ Moore Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-909)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Buffalo Bills have a solid defense, but they allowed a lot of passing yards last season. DJ Moore is a talented receiver who can take advantage of that weakness, especially since the Bills gave up over 170 yards through the air each game. With the Patriots needing to move the ball, Moore should get plenty of chances to make plays. Betting on DJ Moore to have over 14.5 receiving yards looks promising. He has shown he can step up in big moments, and with the Bills' defense giving up so many yards, he could easily hit this mark. The biggest risk is how closely matched these teams have been in the past, but our numbers still see this as a strong pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10

DJ Moore's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards35 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–79.5model over89%tips tracked35

DJ Moore's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 35 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions18 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–6.5model over41%tips tracked18

DJ Moore's NFL receptions prop has been priced 18 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–19.5model over49%tips tracked17

DJ Moore's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 4.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards 50.5 Under -110 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards 49.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

DJ Moore (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DJ Moore is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday 4 October at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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