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NFL

Jaylen Warren

PIT

Value call

Jaylen Warren has one live pick today: over 49.5 rushing yards that pays $151 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
67.5 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 78.9% · before adjusting for past results 85.9% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap +12.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Jaylen Warren
over 49.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 49.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
Value call
HIGHWins about 79 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.10 Odds-196
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaylen Warren is Over 49.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 79%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:39AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that he views Warren as "our featured player right now," Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
updated Oct 12, 7:27PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)85.9%78.9%66.2%1.51+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Jaylen Warren Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Alt) (-196)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Pittsburgh's defense has been tough against running backs, allowing the fewest touchdowns last season, but they also tend to give up some rushing yards. Jaylen Warren has been a bright spot for the Steelers, and with the way he has been running, there's a good chance he can go over 49.5 rushing yards against the Colts. The Steelers have a strong home advantage and a solid history of performing well on grass. Warren has shown he can handle extra pressure, as Pittsburgh's quarterback faced more defenders than normal last season. While the Colts can be tricky and could limit his yards, Warren's recent form makes this bet look promising. Just remember, nothing is guaranteed in sports, so it could go either way.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (32 picks) 68.8% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD18 lines trackedNo line posted
52%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked18

Jaylen Warren's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 18 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 52%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards16 lines trackedNo line posted
25.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–26.5tips tracked16

Jaylen Warren's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 16 times, typically around a 25.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards108 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range14.5–70.5model over98%tips tracked108

Jaylen Warren's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 108 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions18 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–3.5model over63%tips tracked18

Jaylen Warren's NFL receptions prop has been priced 18 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does Jaylen Warren average?How many receiving yards does Jaylen Warren average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Yards (Alt) 49.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Yards (Alt) 29.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Attempts — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaylen Warren (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 68.8% on tracked Jaylen Warren picks. The latest model pick for Jaylen Warren is Over 49.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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