Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaylen Warren is Over 39.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 68%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:20AM UTC
NFL
Jaylen Warren
PIT
Jaylen Warren has one live pick today: Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 39.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 39.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Atlanta Falcons
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Warren rushed 11 times for 43 yards and caught two of four targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Patriots.
updated Sep 20, 9:24PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
68 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 68.4% · before adjusting for past results 68.4% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +15.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 68.4% | 68.4% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +15.3% |
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Jaylen Warren (PIT) Over 39.5 Player rush yds alternate (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Pittsburgh Steelers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jaylen Warren (PIT) Over 39.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD18 lines trackedNo line posted
52%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked18
Jaylen Warren's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 18 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 52%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted 13.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–22.5tips tracked4
Jaylen Warren's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 13.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards84 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range14.5–59.5model over99%tips tracked84
Jaylen Warren's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 84 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions8 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–2.5tips tracked8
Jaylen Warren's NFL receptions prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
39.5 |
Over |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
29.5 |
Over |
-244 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-385 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Jaylen Warren (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaylen Warren is Over 39.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 13 September at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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