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NFL Player Props · Updated daily in season

Today's NFL Prop Bets — Free Player Props for Every Game

Free NFL player props — passing, rushing and receiving yards and touchdowns. Every prop shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

The NFL prop lines are on the board

Books have priced 33 players across 9 prop markets for the 1 game ahead. These are the most widely priced lines right now — our model's ranked picks land here the day it has enough to say.

PlayerMarketLineBest priceBooks
Tay MartinAnytime TD+400014
Tom KennedyAnytime TD+400014
Jared GoffAnytime TD+250014
Tyler ConklinAnytime TD+233014
Jacob SaylorsAnytime TD+200014
Brock WrightAnytime TD+170014
Jackson HawesAnytime TD+105014
Sione VakiAnytime TD+95014
Joshua PalmerAnytime TD+70014
Isaac TeSlaaAnytime TD+60014
Dawson KnoxAnytime TD+54014
Keon ColemanAnytime TD+52514
Ray DavisAnytime TD+45014
Sam LaPortaAnytime TD+25014
Khalil ShakirAnytime TD+23014
Jameson WilliamsAnytime TD+21514
Dalton KincaidAnytime TD+20014
DJ MooreAnytime TD+17014

Compare every book’s price on the live NFL odds board, screen hot streaks in the prop screener, or start with our free NFL pick.

57,159+ Active members 20 ML models 10k+ Sims per game See verified results
Edge shown on every pick Unlock all picks How edge works FAQ

Today's board

Today's NFL prop picks

Track record →

23 props on the board, and the 3 strongest are free

The prop we'd back first · Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions (alt) +136
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.5%
The price says42.4%
$50 returns$118.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each prop below
DET v BUF Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions (alt) Lean46% chance +136
DET v BUF Ray Davis last touchdown scorer Long-shot5% chance +1900
DET v BUF Dalton Kincaid Over 5.5 receptions (alt) Long-shot29% chance +270
DET v BUF High65% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot5% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot5% chance
DET v BUF High65% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot10% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot5% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot3% chance
DET v BUF Long-shot3% chance
DET v BUF Lean51% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
The model's call on 20 more props
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Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (Alt)
+131 best over price · 3 books
Chance to win: 45.5% The price says 42.4%

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+136)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +136 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ray Davis Yes Last Touchdown Scorer
Chance to win: 4.8% The price says 5.0%

Ray Davis (BUF) Yes Player last td (+1900)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ray Davis (BUF) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1900 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $200 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dalton Kincaid Over 5.5 Receptions (Alt)
+131 best over price · 3 books
Chance to win: 29.2% The price says 27.0%

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate (+270)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

All prop picks beyond this point are for Pro members
Access 20 more premium prop picks.
Khalil ShakirLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 6.7%
Dalton KincaidLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 7.1%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 3.5
-143 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 62.5%
James CookLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 12.5%
DJ MooreLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 7.7%
Dawson KnoxLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 3.6%
Keon ColemanLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 4.3%
Khalil ShakirReceiving Yards · line 45.5
-110 best over price · 9 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 52.6%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 6.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 15.6%
Josh AllenLast Touchdown Scorer
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 12.5%
Khalil ShakirReceiving Yards · line 44.5
-110 best over price · 9 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 53.2%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 2.5
-143 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 81.3%
DJ MooreReceptions · line 4.5
-110 best over price · 12 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 52.9%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 7.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 8.8%
Khalil ShakirReceptions · line 4.5
+114 best over price · 11 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 55.3%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 8.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 5.1%
Khalil ShakirReceiving Yards (Alt) · line 14.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 90.9%
Ray DavisAnytime TD
+450 best over price · 14 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Long-shot The price says 18.2%
Dalton KincaidReceptions (Alt) · line 1.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 94.3%

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Quick answer

What is an NFL player prop bet?

An NFL player prop bet is a wager on a single player statistic, such as passing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. It is settled independently of the game winner, which makes props useful when you want to target a specific role, matchup, or usage trend rather than the final score.

Probability vs odds Edge calculation Bankroll discipline
Market What it measures Typical intent
Passing yardsQB volume and efficiencyMatchup driven
ReceptionsTarget share and route roleUsage driven
Rushing yardsCarry volume and game scriptGame flow driven
Anytime TDScoring opportunityRed zone driven

Why our props have an edge

20 ML Models

Our edge is built in house. Each model is trained and evaluated per league.

10k+ Simulations

Games are simulated at scale to estimate distributions and probabilities.

AI Reasoning

Every pick pairs the model's chance and value call with plain-English AI analysis.

How we decide which NFL props are worth a look

Every price a sportsbook posts is really a guess about how often something happens. Our model makes its own guess from the player's recent games, his role, the defence he faces and the weather, then compares the two. When the model thinks something happens more often than the price says, that prop makes the board. The board shows every line, the best price across the books, and how often the player has cleared it lately, for free. Which side the model backs, and why, is for Pro members.

If you want the deeper framework, see our actuarial sports betting methodology.

Example in plain English

Say a receiver's line is 59.5 yards at a price that means "about a coin flip". If our model makes it closer to 6 chances in 10, that is a gap worth knowing about. A gap is not a guarantee. It is the thing we grade in public, week after week, so you can see whether the gaps were real.

Related NFL pages

Continue exploring: NFL Picks, NFL Picks, NFL Parlays, NFL Odds. Click any team name on a prop card to view that team's full profile, upcoming pick, and player directory. Click any player name to view their individual pick history, value calls, and AI analysis.

Transparency and responsible betting

Betting involves risk. Model outputs are informational and are not a guarantee of profit. Use consistent staking, avoid chasing losses, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

NFL player props FAQ

What exactly is an NFL player prop bet?

An NFL player prop bet is a wager on a single player statistic, such as passing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. It is settled independently of the final score, so you are targeting a player outcome rather than a game outcome.

How does Bet Better calculate probability for NFL props?

We estimate true probability using performance history and context, then compare it to the sportsbook chance the price suggests from the posted odds. The difference between those two is the edge shown on this page.

What does edge mean in NFL prop betting?

The value call is the gap between our estimated true probability and the chance the price suggests from the odds. A a gap in your favour suggests the price may be favorable relative to the model expectation, but outcomes are still uncertain.

Are NFL player props better than spreads or totals?

Props are not inherently better. They are different. Props can be more targetable because they focus on a single player statistic, which can make matchup and role based edges easier to isolate.

How often are NFL prop picks updated on this page?

During the NFL season, props are refreshed frequently as new odds and context come in. In the off season, there may be limited or no active props.

Can beginners use Bet Better for NFL player props?

Yes. Start with one market type like receptions or passing yards, use chance and value call as a simple filter, then read the reasoning to confirm the story. Always bet responsibly.

Can I see a team's full NFL prop history?

Yes. Click any team name on a prop card to view that team's profile page, including their upcoming game pick, today's player props, model performance history, and a full player directory.

Can I see an NFL player's full pick history?

Yes. Click any player name on a prop card to view their individual profile, which includes their latest pick, the model's chance and value call, AI analysis, and their complete track record of past picks with results.

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