Of our last 747 graded player prop tips, 56% got a better price than where the market closed.
NFL Player Props · Updated daily in season
NFL Player Props Today — Free Prop Bets for Every Game
NFL player props today: every prop bet on the board, priced and ranked best first. All 131 are below, 50 to a page. Top prop free.
The NFL prop lines are on the board
Books have priced 29 players across 9 prop markets for the 1 game ahead. These are the most widely priced lines right now — our model's ranked picks land here the day it has enough to say.
| Player | Market | Line | Best price | Books |
|---|
| Isaac TeSlaa | Receptions | 1.5 | +650 | 17 |
| Jameson Williams | Receptions | 3.5 | +155 | 16 |
| Sam LaPorta | Receptions | 3.5 | +130 | 16 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Receptions | 3.5 | +125 | 16 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Receptions | 7.5 | +106 | 16 |
| Hunter Henry | Receptions | 3.5 | +116 | 15 |
| Tyler Conklin | Anytime TD | — | +1635 | 14 |
| Jared Goff | Anytime TD | — | +1400 | 14 |
| Brock Wright | Anytime TD | — | +1050 | 14 |
| Sione Vaki | Anytime TD | — | +600 | 14 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Anytime TD | — | +500 | 14 |
| Lan Larison | Anytime TD | — | +475 | 14 |
| Eli Raridon | Anytime TD | — | +330 | 14 |
| Drake Maye | Anytime TD | — | +300 | 14 |
| DeMario Douglas | Anytime TD | — | +280 | 14 |
| Mack Hollins | Anytime TD | — | +275 | 14 |
| Hunter Henry | Anytime TD | — | +250 | 14 |
| Sam LaPorta | Anytime TD | — | +210 | 14 |
Compare every book’s price on the live NFL odds board, screen hot streaks in the prop screener, or start with our free NFL pick.
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29
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See verified results
131 props on the board, and the 3 strongest are free
The prop we'd back first · New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
Isaac TeSlaa Over 2.5 receptions (alt) +390
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win32.0%
The price says20.4%
$50 returns$245.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each prop below
| NE v DET |
Isaac TeSlaa Over 2.5 receptions (alt) |
Long-shot32% chance |
+390 |
| NE v DET |
Jahmyr Gibbs Under 132.5 rush + rec yards |
High61% chance |
-115 |
| NE v DET |
Isaac TeSlaa Over 1.5 receptions |
Lean50% chance |
+124 |
| NE v DET |
Receptions (alt) |
Lean54% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Rushing yards |
High62% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Receptions (alt) |
Lean50% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Receptions |
High62% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Rush + rec yards |
Lean59% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Rushing yards |
High60% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Receptions (alt) |
Long-shot34% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Receptions |
Lean46% chance |
Unlock |
| NE v DET |
Receptions |
Lean55% chance |
Unlock |
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
No props match that.
Try another game or market, or .
+650 best over price · 1 book
Chance to win:
32.0%
The price says 20.4%
Why we like it
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots: Isaac TeSlaa Over 2.5 Receptions (Alt) (+390)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Isaac TeSlaa has been making some noise lately, and he's really becoming a key target for the Detroit Lions. With the Lions playing at home, they often find ways to get their receivers involved, especially against a New England Patriots defense that's had some ups and downs. TeSlaa has a real chance to grab over 2.5 receptions in this matchup.
The Patriots have struggled to stop big plays, which could open up opportunities for him. However, one risk is that the Lions have other strong options in their offense, which might limit TeSlaa's chances. Still, with odds at +390, it feels like a bet worth considering for a player who's starting to shine.
Chance to win:
61.4%
The price says 53.5%
Why we like it
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 132.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The Detroit Lions are facing off against the New England Patriots, and this is a tricky matchup. The Patriots have a solid defense that can make it tough for players like Jahmyr Gibbs to rack up yards. Even though Gibbs has talent and can move the ball, he might struggle to find open space against a team that knows how to clog things up.
We're betting that Gibbs will have under 132.5 rushing and receiving yards. Our numbers give this a good chance, but keep in mind that he could surprise us if he gets loose early in the game. Still, with the Patriots' strong defense, it feels like a smart pick to play it safe here.
+150 best over price · 16 books
Chance to win:
50.5%
The price says 44.6%
Why we like it
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots: Isaac TeSlaa Over 1.5 Receptions (+124)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Isaac TeSlaa has shown he can make a big impact as a receiver for the Detroit Lions, especially at home. With the Lions' offense looking to keep the pressure on and the Patriots' defense focusing on shutting down other key players, TeSlaa could find some open space to catch the ball.
Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to grab over 1.5 receptions in this game. The biggest risk is that the Patriots might come up with a solid game plan to limit his opportunities. Still, with the way the Lions are playing, TeSlaa should have his chances to shine.
-110 best over price · 7 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 52.1%
+130 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 42.5%
+125 best over price · 15 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 58.1%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
-114 best over price · 3 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 53.2%
+130 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 26.6%
+130 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 44.6%
-156 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 61.4%
-156 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 61.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 70.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 80.7%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 76.9%
+650 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 8.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 75.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 85.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 85.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 78.7%
Questionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 81.3%
Questionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 71.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 83.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 82.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 15.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 76.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 76.3%
-222 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 68.0%
-105 best over price · 3 booksQuestionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 46.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 69.0%
-118 best over price · 3 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 76.3%
+106 best over price · 16 booksQuestionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 57.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 82.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 87.0%
-114 best over price · 5 booksQuestionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 48.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 74.1%
Questionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 34.0%
-145 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 59.9%
Questionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 63.3%
-161 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 60.6%
-114 best over price · 5 booksQuestionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.0%
+116 best over price · 15 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 44.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 88.5%
-156 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 80.0%
+116 best over price · 15 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 45.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 90.1%
Questionable
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 89.3%
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Quick answer
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a wager on a single player statistic, such as passing yards, receptions, or touchdowns.
It is settled independently of the game winner, which makes props useful when you want to target a specific role,
matchup, or usage trend rather than the final score.
Probability vs odds
Edge calculation
Bankroll discipline
| Market |
What it measures |
Typical intent |
| Passing yards | QB volume and efficiency | Matchup driven |
| Receptions | Target share and route role | Usage driven |
| Rushing yards | Carry volume and game script | Game flow driven |
| Anytime TD | Scoring opportunity | Red zone driven |
Why our props have an edge
20
ML Models
Our edge is built in house. Each model is trained and evaluated per league.
29
Leagues
Each league is modelled on its own games and players.
AI
Reasoning
Every pick pairs the model's chance and value call with plain-English AI analysis.
How we decide which NFL props are worth a look
Every price a sportsbook posts is really a guess about how often something happens. Our model makes its own guess from the player's recent games, his role, the defence he faces and the weather, then compares the two. When the model thinks something happens more often than the price says, that prop makes the board. The board shows every line, the best price across the books, and how often the player has cleared it lately, for free. Which side the model backs, and why, is for Pro members.
If you want the deeper framework, see our actuarial sports betting methodology.
Example in plain English
Say a receiver's line is 59.5 yards at a price that means "about a coin flip". If our model makes it closer to 6 chances in 10, that is a gap worth knowing about. A gap is not a guarantee. It is the thing we grade in public, week after week, so you can see whether the gaps were real.
Related NFL pages
Continue exploring:
NFL Picks,
NFL Picks,
NFL Parlays,
NFL Odds.
Click any team name on a prop card to view that team's full profile, upcoming pick, and player directory.
Click any player name to view their individual pick history, value calls, and AI analysis.
Transparency and responsible betting
Betting involves risk. Model outputs are informational and are not a guarantee of profit. Use consistent staking, avoid chasing losses, and only bet what you can afford to lose.
NFL prop guide
What NFL players
really average
An NFL player prop is a bet on what one player does in a game, like his passing yards or catches. Today's props are at the top of this page. Below is what players did across all 272 games of the 2025 regular season, so you can tell if a line looks high or low.
Per game2025 regular season
| Prop | Who we counted | Average |
|---|
| Passing yards | QBs with 15+ passes | 221.8 |
| Passing touchdowns | QBs with 15+ passes | 1.5 |
| Pass completions | QBs with 15+ passes | 20.3 |
| Pass attempts | QBs with 15+ passes | 31.5 |
| Rushing yards | Running backs with 10+ carries | 68.8 |
| Rushing attempts | Running backs with 10+ carries | 15.5 |
| Receptions | Wide receivers with 4+ targets | 4.3 |
| Receiving yards | Wide receivers with 4+ targets | 54.7 |
| Receptions | Tight ends with 4+ targets | 4.4 |
| Receiving yards | Tight ends with 4+ targets | 45.8 |
We counted only players who got real work that game, so backups do not drag the numbers down. A running back, receiver or tight end with 5 or more carries and targets scored a touchdown in about 1 game in 3 (771 of 2,234). Books also post interceptions, last touchdown scorer, and combos like rushing plus receiving yards.
How to read a prop
- 1Find the numberOver 249.5 passing yards wins at 250 or more. Under wins at 249 or less.
- 2Check the playerLeague averages are a start. Quarterbacks averaged 222 yards, yet 194 of 537 hit 250. See his own numbers on NFL stats.
- 3Check the gameLook at the defense he faces, injuries and the weather.
Prop questions
How many passing yards does an NFL quarterback average?
About 222 a game. That is every quarterback who threw 15 or more passes in a game in the 2025 regular season.
How often does an NFL player score a touchdown?
A running back, receiver or tight end with 5 or more carries and targets scored in about 1 game in 3 in 2025. Top scorers do it more often and role players less.
What does an alternate line mean?
It is the same stat with a different number and a different price. An easier number pays less. A harder number pays more.
What happens to a prop if the player does not play?
Most books cancel the bet and give your stake back. Rules differ from book to book, so check yours before you bet.
Check before you bet
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