NFL Player Props · Updated daily in season
Today's NFL Prop Bets — Free Player Props for Every Game
Free NFL player props — passing, rushing and receiving yards and touchdowns. Every prop shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.
The NFL prop lines are on the board
Books have priced 33 players across 9 prop markets for the 1 game ahead. These are the most widely priced lines right now — our model's ranked picks land here the day it has enough to say.
| Player | Market | Line | Best price | Books |
|---|
| Tay Martin | Anytime TD | — | +4000 | 14 |
| Tom Kennedy | Anytime TD | — | +4000 | 14 |
| Jared Goff | Anytime TD | — | +2500 | 14 |
| Tyler Conklin | Anytime TD | — | +2330 | 14 |
| Jacob Saylors | Anytime TD | — | +2000 | 14 |
| Brock Wright | Anytime TD | — | +1700 | 14 |
| Jackson Hawes | Anytime TD | — | +1050 | 14 |
| Sione Vaki | Anytime TD | — | +950 | 14 |
| Joshua Palmer | Anytime TD | — | +700 | 14 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Anytime TD | — | +600 | 14 |
| Dawson Knox | Anytime TD | — | +540 | 14 |
| Keon Coleman | Anytime TD | — | +525 | 14 |
| Ray Davis | Anytime TD | — | +450 | 14 |
| Sam LaPorta | Anytime TD | — | +250 | 14 |
| Khalil Shakir | Anytime TD | — | +230 | 14 |
| Jameson Williams | Anytime TD | — | +215 | 14 |
| Dalton Kincaid | Anytime TD | — | +200 | 14 |
| DJ Moore | Anytime TD | — | +170 | 14 |
Compare every book’s price on the live NFL odds board, screen hot streaks in the prop screener, or start with our free NFL pick.
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20
ML models
10k+
Sims per game
See verified results
23 props on the board, and the 3 strongest are free
The prop we'd back first · Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions (alt) +136
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.5%
The price says42.4%
$50 returns$118.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each prop below
| DET v BUF |
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions (alt) |
Lean46% chance |
+136 |
| DET v BUF |
Ray Davis last touchdown scorer |
Long-shot5% chance |
+1900 |
| DET v BUF |
Dalton Kincaid Over 5.5 receptions (alt) |
Long-shot29% chance |
+270 |
| DET v BUF |
|
High65% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot5% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot5% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
High65% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot10% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot5% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot3% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Long-shot3% chance |
— |
| DET v BUF |
|
Lean51% chance |
— |
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
No props match that.
Try another game or market, or .
+131 best over price · 3 books
Chance to win:
45.5%
The price says 42.4%
Why we like it
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+136)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +136 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Chance to win:
4.8%
The price says 5.0%
Why we like it
Ray Davis (BUF) Yes Player last td (+1900)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ray Davis (BUF) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1900 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $200 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
+131 best over price · 3 books
Chance to win:
29.2%
The price says 27.0%
Why we like it
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate (+270)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 6.7%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 7.1%
-143 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 62.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 12.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 7.7%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 3.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 4.3%
-110 best over price · 9 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 52.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 15.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 12.5%
-110 best over price · 9 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
-143 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 81.3%
-110 best over price · 12 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 52.9%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 8.8%
+114 best over price · 11 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 55.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 5.1%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 90.9%
+450 best over price · 14 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 18.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 94.3%
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Quick answer
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a wager on a single player statistic, such as passing yards, receptions, or touchdowns.
It is settled independently of the game winner, which makes props useful when you want to target a specific role,
matchup, or usage trend rather than the final score.
Probability vs odds
Edge calculation
Bankroll discipline
| Market |
What it measures |
Typical intent |
| Passing yards | QB volume and efficiency | Matchup driven |
| Receptions | Target share and route role | Usage driven |
| Rushing yards | Carry volume and game script | Game flow driven |
| Anytime TD | Scoring opportunity | Red zone driven |
Why our props have an edge
20
ML Models
Our edge is built in house. Each model is trained and evaluated per league.
10k+
Simulations
Games are simulated at scale to estimate distributions and probabilities.
AI
Reasoning
Every pick pairs the model's chance and value call with plain-English AI analysis.
How we decide which NFL props are worth a look
Every price a sportsbook posts is really a guess about how often something happens. Our model makes its own guess from the player's recent games, his role, the defence he faces and the weather, then compares the two. When the model thinks something happens more often than the price says, that prop makes the board. The board shows every line, the best price across the books, and how often the player has cleared it lately, for free. Which side the model backs, and why, is for Pro members.
If you want the deeper framework, see our actuarial sports betting methodology.
Example in plain English
Say a receiver's line is 59.5 yards at a price that means "about a coin flip". If our model makes it closer to 6 chances in 10, that is a gap worth knowing about. A gap is not a guarantee. It is the thing we grade in public, week after week, so you can see whether the gaps were real.
Related NFL pages
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Click any player name to view their individual pick history, value calls, and AI analysis.
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