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Riley Nowakowski

PIT

Value call

Riley Nowakowski has one live pick today: to score a touchdown that pays $4,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
8 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Anytime TD
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 8.0% · before adjusting for past results 11.7% · the book's price implies 2.4% · gap +5.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Riley Nowakowski
to score a touchdown
Anytime TD Yes +4000 (41.00) · $100→$4,100
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 8 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$410.00 Odds+4000
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Nowakowski is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 8 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 8%, the price says 2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 2:54AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD11.7%8.0%2.4%41.00+9.2%

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AI Analysis

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Riley Nowakowski Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+4500)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Riley Nowakowski scoring a touchdown is a long shot at +4500, but there's a chance it could happen. The Pittsburgh Steelers are tough on defense, especially against running backs, allowing fewer touchdowns than almost any team last season. However, the Colts' quarterback faced extra rushers quite a bit, which might lead to some quick throws. Nowakowski might find a weak spot in the Colts' defense, which struggled against tight ends last season. With a few key opportunities, he could sneak into the end zone. Just remember, this is still a risky pick since the Steelers' defense is known for shutting down scoring chances.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD11 lines trackedNo line posted
11%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked11

Riley Nowakowski's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 11 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 11%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Total Touchdowns — — — Pending

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About This Player

Riley Nowakowski (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Nowakowski is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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