Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chase Brown is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 38 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 38%, the price says 34%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:20AM UTC
NFL
Chase Brown
CIN
Chase Brown has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 4.5 that pays $294 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 4.5
+194 (2.94) · $100→$294
Value call
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Brown rushed 20 times for 80 yards and brought in three of five targets for two yards in the Bengals' 20-6 win over the Texans on Sunday.
updated Sep 20, 9:02PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
38 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 37.9% · before adjusting for past results 37.9% · the book's price implies 34.0% · gap +3.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 37.9% | 37.9% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +3.9% |
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Chase Brown (CIN) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+194)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Chase Brown (CIN) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +194 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Overall Hit Rate (20 picks)
75.0%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards134 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–49.5model over79%tips tracked134
Chase Brown's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 134 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions67 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–5.5model over56%tips tracked67
Chase Brown's NFL receptions prop has been priced 67 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD16 lines trackedNo line posted
59%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked16
Chase Brown's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 16 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 59%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards46 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range19.5–59.5model over98%tips tracked46
Chase Brown's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 46 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
+194 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
3.5 |
Over |
-108 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
2.5 |
Over |
-270 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Chase Brown (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 75.0% on tracked Chase Brown picks. The latest model pick for Chase Brown is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 13 September at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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