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NFL

Chase Brown

CIN

Value call

Chase Brown has one live pick today: under 3.5 receptions that pays $204 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
2.8 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.3% · before adjusting for past results 68.9% · the book's price implies 49.0% · gap +6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Chase Brown
under 3.5 receptions
Receptions Under 3.5 +104 (2.04) · $100→$204
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.40 Odds+104
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chase Brown is Under 3.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 49%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 8:54PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 807 of 1,525 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Brown rushed 13 times for 39 yards and brought in three of four targets for 21 yards in the Bengals' 31-24 win over the Dolphins on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
updated Oct 11, 10:07PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions68.9%55.3%49.0%2.19+19.9%

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AI Analysis

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Chase Brown (CIN) Under 3.5 Receptions (+104)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Miami Dolphins play Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Chase Brown (CIN) Under 3.5 Receptions. It was priced at +104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (26 picks) 65.4% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards144 lines trackedNo line posted
23.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–49.5model over56%tips tracked144

Chase Brown's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 144 times, typically around a 23.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions73 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–5.5model over56%tips tracked73

Chase Brown's NFL receptions prop has been priced 73 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD16 lines trackedNo line posted
59%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked16

Chase Brown's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 16 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 59%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards72 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · rushing yds
line range19.5–65.5model over95%tips tracked72

Chase Brown's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 72 times, typically around a 29.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Chase Brown average?How many rushing yards does Chase Brown average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Receptions 3.5 Under +104 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Rush + Rec Yards 97.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Rushing Yards 65.5 Under -110 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Rush + Rec Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chase Brown (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 65.4% on tracked Chase Brown picks. The latest model pick for Chase Brown is Under 3.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins on Sunday 11 October at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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