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NFL

T.J. Hockenson

MIN

Value call

T.J. Hockenson has one live pick today: over 39.5 receiving yards that pays $190 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
49 in 100
Predicted
55.2 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 49.4% · before adjusting for past results 72.5% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap -3.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Mon 9 Nov, 8:15 PM ET
T.J. Hockenson
over 39.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Over 39.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
Value call
LEANWins about 49 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.00 Odds-111
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for T.J. Hockenson is Over 39.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 49%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:04PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Hockenson (wrist) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Green Bay.
updated Nov 13, 9:14PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards72.5%49.4%52.6%2.01+19.9%

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AI Analysis

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Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills: T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds correct at time of publishing

T.J. Hockenson has been a solid player for the Minnesota Vikings, especially in the last season where he caught the ball well and averaged almost ten yards each time. The Vikings have a good chance of getting him involved in the game against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills' defense has been known to struggle a bit in covering tight ends, which could open up opportunities for Hockenson to make some big catches. The Vikings have done well on grass fields, and Hockenson's ability to be a target on deep shots means he could easily rack up those receiving yards. The biggest risk here is that both quarterbacks have faced a lot of extra rushers, which might affect how quickly passes get to Hockenson. Still, the chance for him to go over 39.5 yards looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (29 picks) 69.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards118 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–79.5model over87%tips tracked118

T.J. Hockenson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 118 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions11 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receptions
line range4.5–4.5tips tracked11

T.J. Hockenson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 11 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
26%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2

T.J. Hockenson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 26%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards 39.5 Over -111 ✗ MISS
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over -119 ✗ MISS
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 69.0% on tracked T.J. Hockenson picks. The latest model pick for T.J. Hockenson is Over 39.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings on Monday 9 November at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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