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Hunter Henry

NE

Value call

Hunter Henry has one live pick today: under 4.5 receptions that pays $176 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
4.0 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 54.0% · before adjusting for past results 63.2% · the book's price implies 56.8% · gap -2.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 4:25 PM ET
Hunter Henry
under 4.5 receptions
Receptions Under 4.5 -132 (1.76) · $100→$176
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$17.60 Odds-132
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Hunter Henry is Under 4.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 10:29AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLE
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said Monday that he had no update on Henry's (foot) status heading into Sunday's game against the Packers, Karen Guregian of MassLive.com reports. "I don't have any expectations yet," Vrabel said of Henry. "It's kind of how he responds here. He wasn't able to finish the [Week 8] game. So we'll see where he is, and I know Hunter will do everything he can to get back to help us."
updated Nov 3, 3:14PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions63.2%54.0%56.8%1.87+6.4%

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AI Analysis

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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: Hunter Henry Under 4.5 Receptions (-132)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tonight, we're looking at Hunter Henry from the New England Patriots to have under 4.5 receptions against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins' defense has been tough, especially when it comes to covering tight ends. Plus, the Patriots' quarterback has faced a lot of pressure this season, which might limit his ability to find Henry frequently. Henry's production has not been as strong, and the Dolphins are clearly better at stopping the pass than the run. With the game being on grass, Henry's chances of reaching those receptions could be even lower. It's a close matchup, and while there's a solid chance for this pick, the risk is that Henry might get a few more looks than expected.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)
Overall Hit Rate (23 picks) 100.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD15 lines trackedNo line posted
45%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked15

Hunter Henry's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 15 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 45%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards102 lines trackedNo line posted
39.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–59.5model over51%tips tracked102

Hunter Henry's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 102 times, typically around a 39.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions51 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–6.5model over50%tips tracked51

Hunter Henry's NFL receptions prop has been priced 51 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receptions 4.5 Under -132 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards 45.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -1000 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Hunter Henry (NE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 100.0% on tracked Hunter Henry picks. The latest model pick for Hunter Henry is Under 4.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.4% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins on Sunday 1 November at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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