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The latest Bet Better model pick for Amon-Ra St. Brown is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 50%, versus the book's implied 44%, for a model edge of +5.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 25, 11:51AM UTC
NFL

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET

+5.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +125 (2.25)
+5.8% Edge
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site relayed following the team's recent minicamp that St. Brown "looks a little stronger and more explosive heading into his sixth season."
updated Jun 24, 3:47PM UTC · 30d old
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Model Probability
50.2%
Implied Probability
44.4%
Model Edge
+5.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer50.2%—44.4%1.99+5.8%

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AI Analysis

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Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided data, betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown at any time during the Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns game seems to be a risky proposition. His recent performance has been lacklustre, with zero touchdowns scored in the last five games overall, and only one in his last five home games. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero, indicating a recent dry spell in scoring. Although his overall hit rate (25/56) and home hit rate (11/28) suggest he has had some success in scoring touchdowns, the declining trend is a red flag. The model edge of only 0.0576 also indicates a slim margin for profit. In conclusion, the statistical evidence suggests caution in betting on St. Brown to score a touchdown in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8

Amon-Ra St. Brown's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Amon-Ra St. Brown is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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