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The latest Bet Better model pick for Amon-Ra St. Brown is Under 7.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 60%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 4, 11:46AM UTC
NFL

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET

Value call

Amon-Ra St. Brown has one live pick today: Receptions Under 7.5 that pays $167 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 7.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
Value call
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Carolina · Indoor
Mon 5 Oct, 12:20AM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
St. Brown caught four of eight targets for 19 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 31-24 win over the Jets.
updated Sep 27, 10:48PM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
6.0 Receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 65.1% · before adjusting for past results 74.9% · the book's price implies 59.9% · gap +5.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions74.9%65.1%59.9%1.77+15.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 7.5 Receptions (-149)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key player for the Lions, but he faces a tough matchup against the Panthers' defense. The Panthers have shown they can limit wide receivers, making it harder for St. Brown to rack up receptions. Plus, the Lions might focus on running the ball more in this game, which could mean fewer chances for St. Brown. While he has the talent to shine, our numbers suggest there's a good chance he'll stay under 7.5 receptions this time. The risk here is that both teams are pretty evenly matched, so it could lead to a more balanced game plan. With that in mind, the under is worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Amon-Ra St. Brown's lines for Mon 5 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions 7.5
+111 best over price · 2 books

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions line is 7.5, best over price +111 across 2 books.

Receptions 6.5
-145 best over price · 10 books

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions line is 6.5, best over price -145 across 10 books.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 59.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards (alt) line is 59.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 49.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards (alt) line is 49.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.

Receiving Yards 77.5
-114 best over price · 4 books

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards line is 77.5, best over price -114 across 4 books.

Betting angles

2 markets live
Receiving YardsNext game · Carolina PanthersO 49.5 -370
49.5posted line · receiving yds

Amon-Ra St. Brown has a live NFL receiving yards market for Carolina Panthers: over 49.5 receiving yds priced at -370.

ReceptionsNext game · Carolina PanthersU 7.5 -143
7.5posted line · receptions

Amon-Ra St. Brown has a live NFL receptions market for Carolina Panthers: under 7.5 receptions priced at -143.

Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9

Amon-Ra St. Brown's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 26 New York Jets @ Detroit Lions Receptions 7.5 Under -147 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions Total Touchdowns 1.5 Over +650 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions Receptions (Alt) 4.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 New York Jets @ Detroit Lions Total Touchdowns — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 New York Jets @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 New York Jets @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Amon-Ra St. Brown is Under 7.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.0% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers on Monday 5 October at Carolina. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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