Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Under 17.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 63%, implied 53%, edge +9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:19PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards
Under 17.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+9.8% Edge
Atlanta Falcons
@
Indianapolis Colts
No injury designationSeason pending
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How often this wins
63 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 63.0% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +9.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards | 63.0% | — | 53.2% | 1.59 | +9.8% |
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Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The under 17.5 reception yards bet for Jonathan Taylor appears to be a solid choice based on recent performance and hit rates. Taylor has been consistently underperforming in this area, with a current hit streak of zero in both overall and home games. His overall hit rate for the last five games is 0/5, indicating he has not achieved more than 17.5 reception yards in recent matches. Even at home, his performance is equally underwhelming with a hit rate of 0/5 in the last five home games. Although he performed well against Atlanta in the past (vs_atl_hit_rate_last_5: 1/1), it's important to consider the consistency of his recent performance. This pattern suggests a higher likelihood for Taylor to achieve less than 17.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Falcons.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards6 lines trackedNo line posted 17.5typical line · receiving yds
line range16.5–21.5tips tracked6
Jonathan Taylor's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 17.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jonathan Taylor (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Under 17.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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