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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Under 17.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 63%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Jonathan Taylor

IND

+9.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 17.5 -114 (1.88)
+9.8% Edge
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Per coach Kevin Stefanski, Taylor (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from the injuries he was nursing at the end of the 2025 season, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports.
updated Jun 17, 12:58AM UTC · 34d old
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Model Probability
63.0%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+9.8%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards63.0%53.2%1.59+9.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 17.5 reception yards bet for Jonathan Taylor appears to be a solid choice based on recent performance and hit rates. Taylor has been consistently underperforming in this area, with a current hit streak of zero in both overall and home games. His overall hit rate for the last five games is 0/5, indicating he has not achieved more than 17.5 reception yards in recent matches. Even at home, his performance is equally underwhelming with a hit rate of 0/5 in the last five home games. Although he performed well against Atlanta in the past (vs_atl_hit_rate_last_5: 1/1), it's important to consider the consistency of his recent performance. This pattern suggests a higher likelihood for Taylor to achieve less than 17.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Falcons.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards6 lines trackedNo line posted
17.5typical line · receiving yds
line range16.5–21.5tips tracked6

Jonathan Taylor's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 17.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jonathan Taylor (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Under 17.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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