Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Over 59.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 78%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 8:11PM UTC
NFL
Jonathan Taylor
IND
Jonathan Taylor has one live pick today: Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 59.5 that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 59.5
-256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 349 of 542 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Taylor rushed 24 times for 92 yards and two touchdowns while catching all four of his targets for 40 yards in Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
updated Sep 21, 4:01AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
71.8 Rushing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 77.7% · before adjusting for past results 77.7% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +5.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 77.7% | 77.7% | 71.9% | 1.39 | +5.7% |
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Jonathan Taylor (IND) Over 59.5 Player rush yds alternate (-256)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jonathan Taylor (IND) Over 59.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -256 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards98 lines trackedNo line posted 39.5typical line · rushing yds
line range29.5–79.5model over98%tips tracked98
Jonathan Taylor's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 98 times, typically around a 39.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards23 lines trackedNo line posted 17.5typical line · receiving yds
line range16.5–21.5tips tracked23
Jonathan Taylor's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 23 times, typically around a 17.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions9 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–2.5tips tracked9
Jonathan Taylor's NFL receptions prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
59.5 |
Over |
-256 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
49.5 |
Over |
-455 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
39.5 |
Over |
-909 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Rushing Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Jonathan Taylor (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jonathan Taylor is Over 59.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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