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Trevor Lawrence

JAX

Value call

Trevor Lawrence has one live pick today: over 189.5 passing yards that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
236.8 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 89.3% · before adjusting for past results 93.0% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +16.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 9:30 AM ET
Trevor Lawrence
over 189.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 189.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
HIGHWins about 89 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.70 Odds-270
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Trevor Lawrence is Over 189.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 89%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 4:21PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries.
updated Oct 18, 5:36PM UTC · 12d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)93.0%89.3%73.0%1.37+20.0%

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AI Analysis

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans: Trevor Lawrence Over 189.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-270)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Trevor Lawrence to hit over 189.5 passing yards tonight, he just needs to keep finding his receivers. Lawrence has been on a good run lately and has shown he can handle the pressure. The Jaguars' offense looks strong at home, and the Texans' defense has had some struggles stopping the pass, which gives Lawrence a solid chance to rack up those yards. One concern is that the Texans have been improving their defense recently, making this a closer matchup than it might seem. Still, everything points to Lawrence being able to put up the numbers needed. The odds suggest he's a strong favorite to succeed, so it feels like a good bet for tonight's game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards92 lines trackedNo line posted
17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–29.5model over56%tips tracked92

Trevor Lawrence's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 92 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD17 lines trackedNo line posted
39%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked17

Trevor Lawrence's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 17 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 39%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards257 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–249.5model over98%tips tracked257

Trevor Lawrence's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 257 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trevor Lawrence is Over 189.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday 18 October at Jacksonville. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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