Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Trevor Lawrence is Over 7.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt).
On Rushing Attempts (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 28 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 28%, the price says 17%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 4:08AM UTC
NFL
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
Trevor Lawrence has one live pick today: Rushing Attempts (Alt) Over 7.5 that pays $585 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Attempts (Alt)
Over 7.5
+485 (5.85) · $100→$585
Value call
Cleveland Browns
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designationSeason pending
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How often this wins
28 in 100
Predicted
6.1 Rushing Attempts (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 27.8% · before adjusting for past results 27.8% · the book's price implies 17.1% · gap +10.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Attempts (Alt) | 27.8% | 27.8% | 17.1% | 5.85 | +10.8% |
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Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 7.5 Player rush attempts alternate (+485)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jacksonville Jaguars play Cleveland Browns in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 7.5 Player rush attempts alternate. It was priced at +485 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $58.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards73 lines trackedNo line posted 17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–29.5model over56%tips tracked73
Trevor Lawrence's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 73 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD17 lines trackedNo line posted
39%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked17
Trevor Lawrence's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 17 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 39%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards23 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–174.5model over98%tips tracked23
Trevor Lawrence's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 23 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
159.5 |
Over |
-1250 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
149.5 |
Over |
-1429 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
-2500 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Trevor Lawrence (JAX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trevor Lawrence is Over 7.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.8% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday 13 September at Jacksonville. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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