Daniel Jones has one live pick today: over 159.5 passing yards that pays $128 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
98 in 100
Predicted
221.9 passing yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 97.8% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +19.7%.
Latest Model PickFree
Dallas Cowboys
@
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones
over 159.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 159.5
-357 (1.28) · $100→$128
Value call
HIGHWins about 98 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$12.80
Odds-357
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 159.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 98%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 8, 10:14AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Daniel Jones playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Daniel Jones is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
The Colts have been contacted by multiple teams regarding the availability of Jones ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline, Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter of ESPN report.
updated Nov 7, 5:14PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 97.8% | — | 78.1% | 1.28 | +19.7% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Daniel Jones (IND) Over 159.5 Player pass yds alternate (-357)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sunday 8 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Daniel Jones (IND) Over 159.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Daniel Jones's lines for Sun 8 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
-110 best over price · 1 book
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5, best over price -110 across 1 book.
Passing Yards 201.5
-111 best over price · 2 books
Daniel Jones's passing yards line is 201.5, best over price -111 across 2 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Yards 205.5
-110 best over price · 1 book
Daniel Jones's passing yards line is 205.5, best over price -110 across 1 book.
Passing Yards (Alt) 209.5
-108 best over price · 3 books
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 209.5, best over price -108 across 3 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 124.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 219.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 219.5.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Dallas CowboysO 159.5 -357
159.5posted line · passing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL passing yards market for Dallas Cowboys: over 159.5 passing yds priced at -357.
Rushing YardsNext game · Dallas CowboysU 8.5 -114 8.5posted line · rushing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL rushing yards market for Dallas Cowboys: under 8.5 rushing yds priced at -114.
Anytime TD21 lines trackedNo line posted
20%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked21
Daniel Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 21 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 20%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
124.5 |
Over |
-714 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Pass Completions |
19.5 |
Under |
-105 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Touchdowns |
0.5 |
Over |
-189 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Daniel Jones (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 159.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 8 November at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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