Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Jones is Under 10.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 27, 10:57AM UTC
NFL
Daniel Jones
IND
Daniel Jones has one live pick today: Rushing Yards Under 10.5 that pays $192 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards
Under 10.5
-109 (1.92) · $100→$192
Value call
Houston Texans
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 177 of 334 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jones completed 22 of 31 passes for 210 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed three times for 10 yards.
updated Sep 21, 4:14AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
10.7 Rushing Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 57.6% · before adjusting for past results 69.6% · the book's price implies 52.1% · gap +5.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 69.6% | 57.6% | 52.1% | 2.03 | +17.5% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Daniel Jones (IND) Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Houston Texans in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Daniel Jones (IND) Under 10.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Daniel Jones's lines for Sun 27 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards 10.5
-114 best over price · 3 books
Daniel Jones's rushing yards line is 10.5, best over price -114 across 3 books.
Rushing Yards 9.5
-112 best over price · 9 books
Daniel Jones's rushing yards line is 9.5, best over price -112 across 9 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Yards 223.5
+110 best over price · 1 book
Daniel Jones's passing yards line is 223.5, best over price +110 across 1 book.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Houston TexansO 149.5 -667
149.5posted line · passing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL passing yards market for Houston Texans: over 149.5 passing yds priced at -667.
Rushing YardsNext game · Houston TexansU 10.5 -111 10.5posted line · rushing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL rushing yards market for Houston Texans: under 10.5 rushing yds priced at -111.
Anytime TD11 lines trackedNo line posted
23%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked11
Daniel Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 11 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 23%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Daniel Jones (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Jones is Under 10.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 27 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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