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NFL

Daniel Jones

IND

Value call

Daniel Jones has one live pick today: over 174.5 passing yards that pays $120 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
225.5 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 94.6% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +11.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Daniel Jones
over 174.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 174.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
Value call
HIGHWins about 95 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.00 Odds-500
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 95%, the price says 83%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 18, 6:00PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
updated Oct 11, 11:47PM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)94.6%—83.3%1.20+11.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans: Daniel Jones Over 174.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-500)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The odds for Daniel Jones to throw over 174.5 passing yards look solid. Our numbers really like this pick because the Tennessee Titans have struggled against the pass, especially when it comes to tight ends and running backs. With the Colts' offense set to take advantage, Jones should find ways to connect with his targets. One risk to consider is that the Titans' defense can still surprise, with their quarterback facing extra rushers less often than average. Still, given Jones' ability and the Titans' past struggles, this bet feels promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Daniel Jones's lines for Sun 18 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5

Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.

Rushing Yards 7.5

Daniel Jones's rushing yards line is 7.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5

Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.

Rushing Yards 6.5

Daniel Jones's rushing yards line is 6.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5

Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5

Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.

Pass Completions 21.5

Daniel Jones's pass completions line is 21.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5

Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Passing Yards253 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–236.5model over99%tips tracked253

Daniel Jones's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 253 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards104 lines trackedNo line posted
39.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–49.5model over7%tips tracked104

Daniel Jones's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 104 times, typically around a 39.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD14 lines trackedNo line posted
21%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked14

Daniel Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 14 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 21%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Daniel Jones average?How many rushing yards does Daniel Jones average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Daniel Jones (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 18 October at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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