Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 3.5 on Passing Touchdowns (Alt).
On Passing Touchdowns (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 6 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 6%, implied 5%, edge +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 6, 8:09PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns (Alt)
Over 3.5
+2000 (21.00) · $100→$2,100
+1.7% Edge
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jones was crisp in practice throughout training camp, 107.5 The Fan reports.
updated Sep 1, 4:32PM UTC · 5d old
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
6 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 6.4% · the book's price implies 4.8% · gap +1.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns (Alt) | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 21.00 | +1.7% |
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Daniel Jones (IND) Over 3.5 Player pass tds alternate (+2000)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Daniel Jones (IND) Over 3.5 Player pass tds alternate. It was priced at +2000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $210 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Daniel Jones's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 3.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 3.5.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 2.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 2.5.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 1.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 1.5.
Pass Completions 21.5
Daniel Jones's pass completions line is 21.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Daniel Jones's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Anytime TD
+550 best over price · 12 books
Daniel Jones's anytime td line is posted, best over price +550 across 12 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 219.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 219.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 209.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 209.5.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Baltimore RavensO 189.5 -370
189.5posted line · passing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL passing yards market for Baltimore Ravens: over 189.5 passing yds priced at -370.
Anytime TDNext game · Baltimore RavensAnytime TD +400
Daniel Jones has a live NFL anytime td market for Baltimore Ravens priced at +400.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Daniel Jones (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 3.5 on Passing Touchdowns (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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