Latest settled result · Jul 22, 2026
Every pick we publish, tracked and settled.
Every pick we publish is tracked and settled in public — wins and losses, nothing hidden. And we show the one number that proves it's real: how often our price beats the final odds.
Every pick published before the game, then graded in public — win or lose, at the price we posted.
+9.2%
MLB ROI · all-time, 4,648 bets
17,348
Picks graded in public
Every settled pick is on this page — wins and losses, nothing hidden. We lead with the numbers that prove the picks are real value; the full record over 7, 30 and 90 days is right below.
Recent wins
The latest winning picks as they settle. The full record — every settled pick, wins and losses — is counted in the record above and in our public data feed.
WON
Chicago Cubs
MLB · Moneyline · Jul 22
-111 · +0.90u
WON
Houston Astros
MLB · Moneyline · Jul 22
-128 · +0.78u
WON
Los Angeles Angels
MLB · Moneyline · Jul 22
+190 · +1.90u
WON
Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Moneyline · Jul 22
+280 · +2.80u
WON
Chicago Cubs -1.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+176 · +1.76u
WON
Chicago Cubs -2
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+216 · +2.16u
WON
Chicago Cubs -2.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+285 · +2.85u
WON
Chicago Cubs -3
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+339 · +3.39u
WON
Chicago Cubs 1.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-192 · +0.52u
WON
Houston Astros -1.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+156 · +1.56u
WON
Houston Astros 1
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-175 · +0.57u
WON
Houston Astros 1.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-213 · +0.47u
WON
Los Angeles Angels -1
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+350 · +3.50u
WON
Los Angeles Angels 1
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
+126 · +1.26u
WON
Los Angeles Angels 1.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-120 · +0.83u
WON
Los Angeles Angels 2
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-182 · +0.55u
WON
Los Angeles Angels 2.5
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-233 · +0.43u
WON
Los Angeles Angels 3
MLB · Spread · Jul 22
-345 · +0.29u
The record, cell by cell
Every combination of sport, market, side and model confidence we've bet 50+ times — winners and losers, nothing filtered. Green means even our pessimistic estimate of that combination is profitable. Red means our system has proven it loses — and automatically stops betting it.
Settled record by market and model-confidence band — every measured combination, wins and losses, with the auto-calibrator's verdict
| Combination | Confidence | Bets |
Strike | ROI | Floor | Ceiling | Verdict |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
60-70% |
438 |
55.3% |
+21.2% |
+13.7% |
+28.7% |
+EV |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
70-85% |
546 |
67.4% |
+18.0% |
+12.9% |
+23.1% |
+EV |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
<50% |
764 |
35.6% |
+20.5% |
+12.7% |
+28.3% |
+EV |
| MLB · Batter - Runs Scored · Under |
85%+ |
67 |
91.0% |
+11.5% |
+5.9% |
+17.1% |
+EV |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
70-85% |
177 |
68.4% |
+12.0% |
+3.9% |
+20.2% |
+EV |
| MLB · Moneyline |
50-60% |
100 |
51.0% |
+26.6% |
+3.3% |
+50.0% |
+EV |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
50-60% |
421 |
47.0% |
+9.8% |
+2.2% |
+17.4% |
+EV |
| NFL · Receiving Yards (Alt) · Over |
<50% |
220 |
31.8% |
+17.1% |
+0.6% |
+33.6% |
+EV |
| AFL · Goals · Over |
85%+ |
384 |
82.3% |
-1.4% |
-4.5% |
+1.6% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Batter - Hits · Under |
85%+ |
285 |
71.9% |
+0.1% |
-4.7% |
+4.9% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
<50% |
285 |
29.5% |
-1.1% |
-12.8% |
+10.5% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
50-60% |
182 |
42.3% |
-0.8% |
-11.9% |
+10.3% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs + Asts · Under |
70-85% |
169 |
53.3% |
+0.8% |
-8.5% |
+10.1% |
Building evidence |
| NFL · Receiving Yards · Under |
60-70% |
145 |
47.6% |
-8.9% |
-19.0% |
+1.2% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
60-70% |
144 |
51.4% |
+11.6% |
-1.4% |
+24.6% |
Building evidence |
| Soccer · Draw No Bet |
<50% |
129 |
26.4% |
-8.9% |
-28.0% |
+10.2% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Points · Under |
70-85% |
122 |
54.1% |
+0.7% |
-10.2% |
+11.7% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Moneyline |
60-70% |
116 |
44.0% |
-2.9% |
-16.9% |
+11.1% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Under |
70-85% |
116 |
58.6% |
+5.2% |
-5.9% |
+16.2% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs + Asts · Under |
85%+ |
95 |
65.3% |
+6.3% |
-4.4% |
+17.0% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Rebounds · Under |
60-70% |
94 |
56.4% |
+8.3% |
-4.6% |
+21.2% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Pts + Asts · Under |
85%+ |
89 |
66.3% |
+4.3% |
-6.8% |
+15.3% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Rebounds · Under |
70-85% |
89 |
59.6% |
+3.8% |
-7.9% |
+15.5% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Rebs + Asts · Under |
70-85% |
85 |
56.5% |
+0.6% |
-12.4% |
+13.6% |
Building evidence |
| NFL · Receptions (Alt) · Over |
85%+ |
68 |
89.7% |
+3.6% |
-2.2% |
+9.4% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Rebounds · Under |
85%+ |
66 |
83.3% |
+8.1% |
-0.2% |
+16.4% |
Building evidence |
| AFL · Disposals · Under |
70-85% |
65 |
63.1% |
+6.5% |
-8.1% |
+21.0% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Moneyline |
70-85% |
58 |
41.4% |
-2.4% |
-22.0% |
+17.3% |
Building evidence |
| NFL · Receptions · Under |
70-85% |
58 |
53.4% |
-7.3% |
-21.4% |
+6.8% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Batter - Hits · Under |
70-85% |
57 |
71.9% |
+2.7% |
-8.6% |
+13.9% |
Building evidence |
| AFL · Head to Head |
<50% |
56 |
28.6% |
+6.8% |
-20.3% |
+33.9% |
Building evidence |
| AFL · Total Points · Under |
60-70% |
54 |
61.1% |
+12.8% |
-3.4% |
+28.9% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Points · Over |
85%+ |
53 |
64.2% |
-3.4% |
-16.2% |
+9.5% |
Building evidence |
| NFL · Total Points · Over |
50-60% |
52 |
59.6% |
-0.7% |
-17.5% |
+16.1% |
Building evidence |
| MLB · Moneyline |
<50% |
52 |
28.8% |
+5.3% |
-27.9% |
+38.6% |
Building evidence |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Under |
85%+ |
51 |
74.5% |
+7.3% |
-6.0% |
+20.7% |
Building evidence |
| NFL · Anytime Touchdown Scorer |
<50% |
124 |
9.7% |
-56.6% |
-68.5% |
-44.8% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Rushing Yards · Under |
60-70% |
63 |
25.4% |
-44.5% |
-57.9% |
-31.2% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Rushing Yards (Alt) · Over |
<50% |
147 |
14.3% |
-40.6% |
-56.1% |
-25.1% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Total Points · Under |
50-60% |
57 |
36.8% |
-23.0% |
-38.8% |
-7.1% |
Auto-vetoed |
| Soccer · Head to Head 3-Way |
<50% |
421 |
19.5% |
-22.3% |
-33.0% |
-11.6% |
Auto-vetoed |
| Soccer · Head to Head |
<50% |
421 |
19.5% |
-22.3% |
-33.0% |
-11.6% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Anytime Touchdown Scorer |
50-60% |
461 |
29.9% |
-21.9% |
-29.2% |
-14.6% |
Auto-vetoed |
| Soccer · Both Teams to Score |
60-70% |
53 |
37.7% |
-20.6% |
-37.5% |
-3.8% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Over |
70-85% |
152 |
43.4% |
-20.1% |
-29.1% |
-11.1% |
Auto-vetoed |
| MLB · Batter - Walks · Under |
85%+ |
59 |
69.5% |
-18.2% |
-27.4% |
-9.0% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Receiving Yards (Alt) · Over |
85%+ |
77 |
61.0% |
-16.5% |
-25.1% |
-8.0% |
Auto-vetoed |
| AFL · Goals · Over |
70-85% |
473 |
58.1% |
-16.5% |
-20.7% |
-12.3% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NFL · Receiving Yards · Under |
50-60% |
105 |
42.9% |
-14.9% |
-26.6% |
-3.2% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NBA · Points · Over |
70-85% |
125 |
44.8% |
-13.7% |
-24.1% |
-3.2% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Over |
60-70% |
134 |
44.8% |
-12.6% |
-23.1% |
-2.0% |
Auto-vetoed |
| AFL · Disposals · Over |
70-85% |
2,650 |
63.4% |
-11.0% |
-12.7% |
-9.3% |
Auto-vetoed |
| Soccer · Both Teams to Score |
50-60% |
167 |
44.9% |
-10.2% |
-20.3% |
-0.1% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NBA · Pts + Asts · Under |
70-85% |
169 |
47.9% |
-9.9% |
-19.1% |
-0.7% |
Auto-vetoed |
| NHL · Puck Line |
70-85% |
132 |
60.6% |
-8.6% |
-16.9% |
-0.4% |
Auto-vetoed |
| AFL · Disposals · Over |
85%+ |
1,828 |
76.6% |
-8.5% |
-10.0% |
-7.0% |
Auto-vetoed |
| MLB · Batter - Total Bases · Under |
70-85% |
373 |
59.2% |
-5.5% |
-10.7% |
-0.2% |
Auto-vetoed |
Showing 57 of 57 measured combinations · minimum 50 settled bets per cell · ROI is shrunk toward each market's average so thin cells can't post lucky numbers · floor / ceiling = 80% confidence bounds · strike rate is context, ROI is the judge.
Emerging combinations — building evidence
The finer grain the auto-calibrator actually works at: combinations running a positive return so far on a sample that's still too small to call. Deliberately shown in neutral — nothing here is proven, and we don't pretend otherwise. Each row graduates into the measured table above the day it crosses 50 settled bets — or quietly drops off if the return goes negative first. That's the bar working in public.
Emerging combinations — positive pessimistic floor, sample still building toward the 50-bet measurement bar
| Combination | Confidence · Edge | Bets |
Strike | ROI so far | Floor | Progress |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
<50% conf · 10-15% edge |
46 |
30.4% |
+4.1% |
-20.8% |
46/50 settled |
| NFL · Receiving Yards · Under |
70-85% conf · 15-25% edge |
43 |
67.4% |
+27.3% |
-8.1% |
43/50 settled |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Under |
70-85% conf · 25%+ edge |
43 |
60.5% |
+15.3% |
-14.7% |
43/50 settled |
| WNBA · totals · Over |
50-60% conf · <6% edge |
42 |
71.4% |
+36.1% |
-12.3% |
42/50 settled |
| AFL · Goals · Over |
85%+ conf · 15-25% edge |
42 |
73.8% |
+1.2% |
-16.8% |
42/50 settled |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
85%+ conf · 15-25% edge |
41 |
85.4% |
+22.0% |
+7.7% |
41/50 settled |
| NFL · Total Points · Over |
50-60% conf · <6% edge |
40 |
62.5% |
+18.8% |
-19.3% |
40/50 settled |
| Soccer · Draw No Bet |
<50% conf · 6-10% edge |
40 |
42.5% |
+50.7% |
-23.2% |
40/50 settled |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
50-60% conf · 25%+ edge |
38 |
31.6% |
+18.3% |
-20.7% |
38/50 settled |
| MLB · Total Runs · Over |
85%+ conf · 10-15% edge |
36 |
77.8% |
+1.7% |
-2.4% |
36/50 settled |
| MLB · Batter - Hits · Under |
70-85% conf · 10-15% edge |
34 |
73.5% |
+3.7% |
-11.9% |
34/50 settled |
| NBA · Rebounds · Under |
60-70% conf · 15-25% edge |
34 |
55.9% |
+14.6% |
-13.8% |
34/50 settled |
| NBA · Pts + Asts · Under |
85%+ conf · 15-25% edge |
34 |
76.5% |
+6.5% |
-13.9% |
34/50 settled |
| MLB · Moneyline |
50-60% conf · 6-10% edge |
33 |
48.5% |
+1.3% |
-19.2% |
33/50 settled |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Over |
50-60% conf · 15-25% edge |
33 |
45.5% |
+16.9% |
-26.2% |
33/50 settled |
| NBA · Rebs + Asts · Under |
70-85% conf · 25%+ edge |
32 |
56.2% |
+10.2% |
-23.3% |
32/50 settled |
| NBA · Rebounds · Under |
70-85% conf · 15-25% edge |
31 |
64.5% |
+11.7% |
-11.8% |
31/50 settled |
| AFL · Total Points · Under |
60-70% conf · 10-15% edge |
29 |
65.5% |
+23.7% |
-6.6% |
29/50 settled |
| NFL · Receiving Yards · Under |
60-70% conf · 15-25% edge |
29 |
72.4% |
+38.1% |
-10.4% |
29/50 settled |
| MLB · Batter - Runs Scored · Under |
85%+ conf · 6-10% edge |
27 |
85.2% |
+4.2% |
-2.0% |
27/50 settled |
| NBA · Pts + Rebs · Under |
85%+ conf · 15-25% edge |
27 |
77.8% |
+9.9% |
-15.4% |
27/50 settled |
| MLB · Batter - Runs Scored · Under |
85%+ conf · <6% edge |
26 |
96.2% |
+12.1% |
+6.0% |
26/50 settled |
| MLB · Total Runs · Under |
60-70% conf · 15-25% edge |
26 |
61.5% |
+33.4% |
-6.2% |
26/50 settled |
| AFL · Total Points · Under |
50-60% conf · <6% edge |
25 |
76.0% |
+42.8% |
+0.0% |
25/50 settled |
Straight talk: on 11 Jul 2026 a model update degraded our MLB performance; on 20 Jul 2026 our new validation gate caught it. Every model must now prove it predicts better and makes money on games it has never seen before going live — so a silent regression can't reach the board again. The record above includes that losing stretch in full. We don't exclude bad weeks.
How we track this
Flat staking. Every published selection is treated as a 1-unit bet at the price recorded for it — no parlaying up, no variable stakes. A "unit" just means one bet the same size every time — if you bet $100 a time, one unit is $100.
Honest math. A win at +odds returns odds/100 units; a win at −odds returns 100/|odds| units; a loss is −1 unit. ROI is total units divided by total picks.
No survivorship. The headline record counts every settled selection across NBA, AFL, NHL, MLB and the major soccer leagues — not just the markets that happened to win. See our full methodology.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results — please bet responsibly. Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not take bets.
These are settled — today is live
See the plays that cleared the model's filter today
Every pick here was logged before tip-off and graded in public — win or loss. Today's board shows the ones the model is most confident are mispriced.
See today's picks