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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Downs is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On the Receiving Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 39%, versus the book's implied 32%, for a model edge of +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Josh Downs

IND

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +210 (3.10)
+6.6% Edge
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
38.8%
Implied Probability
32.3%
Model Edge
+6.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)38.8%32.3%2.57+6.6%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Downs (IND) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+210)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

While Josh Downs' recent performance has been less than stellar, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 in his last five games and a current hit streak of zero, betting on the over 14.5 might still be a viable option. This is due to a combination of his overall hit rate of 28/39, which indicates a relatively strong historical performance, and his home hit rate of 15/21, suggesting that he performs better when playing at home. Moreover, his hit rate against Atlanta is perfect, 1/1, showing that he has performed well against this team in the past. Despite his recent slump, the historical data suggests that Downs is capable of reaching over 14.5 yards. It is also worth noting that the model edge of 0.0658 adds a small degree of confidence in this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–29.5model over49%tips tracked5

Josh Downs's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Downs (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Downs is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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