Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Downs is Over 19.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 98%, the price says 85%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:01PM UTC
NFL
Josh Downs
IND
Josh Downs has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 19.5 that pays $117 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 19.5
-588 (1.17) · $100→$117
Value call
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Downs caught seven of nine targets for 72 yards in Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
updated Sep 21, 4:15AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
98 in 100
Predicted
50.6 Receiving Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 97.7% · before adjusting for past results 97.7% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +12.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 97.7% | 97.7% | 85.5% | 1.17 | +12.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
Josh Downs (IND) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate (-588)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Downs (IND) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards86 lines trackedNo line posted 44.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–49.5model over59%tips tracked86
Josh Downs's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 86 times, typically around a 44.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions86 lines trackedNo line posted 4.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–8.5model over60%tips tracked86
Josh Downs's NFL receptions prop has been priced 86 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
29%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9
Josh Downs's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 29%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-588 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-1000 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
29.5 |
Over |
-263 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Josh Downs (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Downs is Over 19.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.