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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Tolbert is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On the Receptions market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:53PM UTC
NFL

Jalen Tolbert

DAL

+15.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 1.5 -130 (1.77)
+15.7% Edge
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+15.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions72.2%56.5%1.39+15.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Tolbert (DAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data provided for Jalen Tolbert suggests a strong rationale for a bet on Under 1.5 in the 'player receptions' market for the Cowboys vs Giants game. Tolbert's overall hit rate over his last 32 games is just 31.25%, and this drops to 27.78% in home games. This trend continues when he plays against the Giants, with a hit rate of only 25% overall and no successful hits at home in the last two games. His recent performance also supports this, as he has hit this mark in only 20% of the last five home games and 40% of the last five games overall. His current hit streak is also low, with no hits in his last home game or against the Giants. With a model edge of 0.1567, there's a strong indication that betting Under 1.5 on Jalen Tolbert's player receptions is a statistically sound decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked4

Jalen Tolbert's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
11.5typical line · receiving yds
line range11.5–19.5tips tracked2

Jalen Tolbert's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 11.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jalen Tolbert (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Tolbert is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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