Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dallas Goedert is Over 2.5 on Total Touchdowns.
On Total Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 4:27AM UTC
NFL
Dallas Goedert
PHI
Dallas Goedert has one live pick today: Total Touchdowns Over 2.5 that pays $15,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Total Touchdowns
Over 2.5
+15000 (151.00) · $100→$15,100
Value call
Washington Commanders
@
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Goedert caught four of five targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns Sunday in a 24-22 victory versus Washington.
updated Sep 14, 1:18AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.7 Total Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 3.3% · before adjusting for past results 3.3% · the book's price implies 0.7% · gap +2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Total Touchdowns | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 151.00 | +2.7% |
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Dallas Goedert (PHI) Over 2.5 Player tds over (+15000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Philadelphia Eagles play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dallas Goedert (PHI) Over 2.5 Player tds over. It was priced at +15000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1510 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
49%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5
Dallas Goedert's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 49%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards31 lines trackedNo line posted 34.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–39.5model over64%tips tracked31
Dallas Goedert's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 31 times, typically around a 34.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range3.5–3.5tips tracked2
Dallas Goedert's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Total Touchdowns |
2.5 |
Over |
+15000 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Total Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Over |
+2000 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards |
35.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Dallas Goedert (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dallas Goedert is Over 2.5 on Total Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 13 September at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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