Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Khalil Shakir is Under 4.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:22AM UTC
NFL
Khalil Shakir
BUF
Khalil Shakir has one live pick today: Receptions Under 4.5 that pays $181 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 4.5
-123 (1.81) · $100→$181
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Shakir brought in three of six targets for 38 yards and returned one kickoff for 11 yards in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday.
updated Sep 18, 5:09AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
46 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 46.0% · before adjusting for past results 59.9% · the book's price implies 55.3% · gap -9.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 59.9% | 46.0% | 55.3% | 1.92 | +4.6% |
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Khalil Shakir (BUF) Under 4.5 Receptions (-123)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Khalil Shakir (BUF) Under 4.5 Receptions. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4
Khalil Shakir's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–45.5model over93%tips tracked9
Khalil Shakir's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions3 lines trackedNo line posted 4.5typical line · receptions
line range4.5–4.5tips tracked3
Khalil Shakir's NFL receptions prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions |
4.5 |
Under |
-123 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-1000 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
44.5 |
Under |
-111 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Khalil Shakir (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Khalil Shakir is Under 4.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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