Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dalton Kincaid is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 10 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 10%, the price says 9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 10:21PM UTC
NFL
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
Dalton Kincaid has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 7.5 that pays $1,140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 7.5
+1040 (11.40) · $100→$1,140
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 349 of 542 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Kincaid brought in seven of eight targets for 95 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday.
updated Sep 18, 4:18AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
10 in 100
Predicted
5.2 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 9.5% · before adjusting for past results 15.5% · the book's price implies 8.8% · gap +0.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 15.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.40 | +6.8% |
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Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate (+1040)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +1040 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $114 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3
Dalton Kincaid's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions36 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–8.5model over76%tips tracked36
Dalton Kincaid's NFL receptions prop has been priced 36 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–14.5model over92%tips tracked3
Dalton Kincaid's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
7.5 |
Over |
+1040 |
✗ MISS |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
6.5 |
Over |
+557 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
8.5 |
Over |
+1920 |
✗ MISS |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Dalton Kincaid (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dalton Kincaid is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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