Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Allen is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 7 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 7%, the price says 13%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 11:54AM UTC
NFL
Josh Allen
BUF
Josh Allen has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $800 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+700 (8.00) · $100→$800
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Allen completed 20 of 31 passes for 248 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing 14 times for 69 yards and another pair of scores in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday. He also committed a fumble recovered by Buffalo.
updated Sep 18, 3:47AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
7 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 7.2% · before adjusting for past results 23.6% · the book's price implies 12.5% · gap -5.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 23.6% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 8.00 | +11.1% |
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Josh Allen (BUF) Yes Player last td (+700)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Allen (BUF) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +700 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted 17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range17.5–19.5tips tracked2
Josh Allen's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Interceptions Thrown |
0.5 |
Under |
-179 |
✓ HIT |
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Josh Allen (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Allen is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.1% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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