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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Allen is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 63%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +8.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:23PM UTC
NFL

Josh Allen

BUF

+8.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 17.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
+8.7% Edge
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
62.8%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+8.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards62.8%—54.1%1.59+8.7%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Allen (BUF) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Josh Allen for under 17.5 rushing yards in the Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints game is statistically sound, given his recent performances. Allen's overall hit rate is low in recent games: his hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. This implies that he has not been able to surpass the 17.5 rushing yards mark in most of his recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better but still not promising, standing at 0/3, 1/5, and 3/10 for the last 3, 5, and 10 home games respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero. This means he hasn't surpassed the 17.5 rushing yards mark in his most recent games. Combined with a model edge of 0.087, this data suggests that betting on Allen

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range17.5–19.5tips tracked2

Josh Allen's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Allen (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Allen is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.7% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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