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NFL

Josh Allen

BUF

Value call

Josh Allen has one live pick today: under 249.5 passing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
237.9 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.2% · before adjusting for past results 65.0% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +2.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 PM ET
Josh Allen
under 249.5 passing yards
Passing Yards Under 249.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Allen is Under 249.5 on Passing Yards.
On Passing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 10:43AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Allen completed 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens. He added 30 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown on seven rushing attempts.
updated Nov 1, 10:28PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards65.0%55.2%53.2%1.99+11.8%

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AI Analysis

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Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens: Josh Allen Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

You can get a good price on Josh Allen's passing yards under 249.5. Our numbers show a solid chance this bet could hit. The Buffalo Bills have leaned more on passing than running, which gives them a better shot at keeping Allen's yardage lower. The Ravens have been tough against the pass lately, which could pressure him into shorter plays. One thing to watch is that both quarterbacks faced extra rushers about the same amount. That means both teams will feel some heat, and it might lead to fewer big throws. If the Ravens can disrupt Allen's rhythm, this bet looks even stronger. Just remember, nothing's a sure thing, but this pick has some good backing.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)
Overall Hit Rate (24 picks) 58.3% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards113 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–59.5model over98%tips tracked113

Josh Allen's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 113 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards177 lines trackedNo line posted
169.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–249.5model over97%tips tracked177

Josh Allen's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 177 times, typically around a 169.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Yards 249.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Yards — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Rushing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Allen (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 58.3% on tracked Josh Allen picks. The latest model pick for Josh Allen is Under 249.5 on Passing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday 1 November at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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