Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Puka Nacua is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 2 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 2%, the price says 12%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:05PM UTC
NFL
Puka Nacua
LA
Puka Nacua has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $850 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+750 (8.50) · $100→$850
Value call
New York Giants
@
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles · Indoor
Tue 22 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Rams head coach Sean McVay acknowledged Tuesday that he's uncertain if Nacua (groin) will be available for Sunday's game against the Broncos, Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times reports. "I'm not sure what his status is as far as this next coming week," McVay said of Nacua. "I'm hopeful that he'll play.... If he's ready to go, great. If not, then we'll continue to roll."
updated Sep 22, 3:38PM UTC · 1d old
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
2 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 1.7% · before adjusting for past results 15.4% · the book's price implies 11.8% · gap -10.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 15.4% | 1.7% | 11.8% | 8.50 | +3.7% |
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Puka Nacua (LA) Yes Player last td (+750)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play New York Giants in the NFL on Tuesday 22 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Puka Nacua (LA) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +750 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $85 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceptions54 lines trackedNo line posted 7.5typical line · receptions
line range4.5–9.5model over50%tips tracked54
Puka Nacua's NFL receptions prop has been priced 54 times, typically around a 7.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards33 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · rushing yds
line range2.5–39.5tips tracked33
Puka Nacua's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 33 times, typically around a 2.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Puka Nacua's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Rushing Yards |
2.5 |
Under |
-102 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Receptions (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-667 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Puka Nacua (LA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Puka Nacua is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday 22 September at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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