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NFL

Keaton Mitchell

LAC

Value call

Keaton Mitchell has one live pick today: under 10.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
13.2 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.6% · before adjusting for past results 67.6% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -0.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 4:05 PM ET
Keaton Mitchell
under 10.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 10.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 53 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keaton Mitchell is Under 10.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:38AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
updated Oct 13, 1:05AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards67.6%52.6%53.2%2.00+14.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: Keaton Mitchell Under 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Keaton Mitchell has been a bit quiet lately, and this matchup against the Denver Broncos could keep him under wraps. The Chargers have struggled a bit with tight ends, but they're also good at limiting big plays when it matters most. With the Broncos' quarterback facing a lot of extra pressure in games, it might be tough for them to find Mitchell often. The risk here is that both teams have similar defensive stats, which makes it hard to predict how many chances Mitchell will get. Still, the numbers suggest he might not hit those receiving yards this time. It's a solid bet to consider, but keep in mind it could go either way.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (27 picks) 55.6% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
10.5typical line · receiving yds
line range8.5–24.5tips tracked10

Keaton Mitchell's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 10.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked4

Keaton Mitchell's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards63 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–49.5model over85%tips tracked63

Keaton Mitchell's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 63 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
19%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Keaton Mitchell's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 19%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does Keaton Mitchell average?How many receiving yards does Keaton Mitchell average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Receiving Yards 10.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Yards (Alt) 24.5 Over -156 ✗ MISS
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Keaton Mitchell (LAC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 55.6% on tracked Keaton Mitchell picks. The latest model pick for Keaton Mitchell is Under 10.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday 11 October at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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