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NFL

Geno Smith

NYJ

Value call

Geno Smith has one live pick today: over 169.5 passing yards that pays $133 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
88 in 100
Predicted
211.8 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 88.2% · before adjusting for past results 92.7% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +13.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Geno Smith
over 169.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 169.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
Value call
HIGHWins about 88 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.30 Odds-303
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Geno Smith is Over 169.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 88 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 88%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 9, 1:15AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Is Geno Smith playing on Sunday? Yes, on the latest team news. Geno Smith is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.

UNKNOWN
Smith completed eight of 15 pass attempts for 119 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-12 loss to the Bears.
updated Oct 4, 9:42PM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)92.7%88.2%75.2%1.33+17.5%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns: Geno Smith Over 169.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-303)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Geno Smith has been solid lately, and he's getting a chance to shine against the Cleveland Browns. The Jets' defense has struggled, giving up a lot of passing yards each game. With the Browns' defense also showing some weaknesses, it feels likely that Smith will rack up enough passing yards to go over 169.5. While the Jets have had mixed results on their home field, Smith's recent form suggests he can take advantage of the Browns' defense. The biggest risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so it could be a tough battle. But with the numbers leaning in Smith's favor, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Geno Smith's lines for Sun 11 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.

Pass Completions 20.5

Geno Smith's pass completions line is 20.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5

Geno Smith's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.

Betting angles

2 markets live
Passing YardsNext game · Cleveland Browns @ New York JetsO 169.5 -312
169.5posted line · passing yds

Geno Smith has a live NFL passing yards market for Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets: over 169.5 passing yds priced at -312.

Anytime TDNext game · Cleveland Browns @ New York JetsAnytime TD +850

Geno Smith has a live NFL anytime td market for Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets priced at +850.

Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
7.5typical line · rushing yds
line range7.5–49.5tips tracked17

Geno Smith's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 7.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Geno Smith average?How many rushing yards does Geno Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New York Jets @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

See the complete track record

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About This Player

Geno Smith (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Geno Smith is Over 169.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets on Sunday 11 October at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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