Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Geno Smith is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 15 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 15%, the price says 3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 18, 7:59PM UTC
NFL
Geno Smith
NYJ
Geno Smith has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $3,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+3000 (31.00) · $100→$3,100
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards while rushing six times for seven yards in Sunday's 23-10 win over the Titans.
updated Sep 14, 12:54AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
15 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 14.5% · the book's price implies 3.2% · gap +11.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 14.5% | — | 3.2% | 31.00 | +11.3% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Geno Smith (NYJ) Yes Player last td (+3000)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
New York Jets play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Geno Smith (NYJ) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +3000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $310 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Geno Smith's lines for Sun 20 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Geno Smith's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Anytime TD
+750 best over price · 14 books
Geno Smith's anytime td line is posted, best over price +750 across 14 books.
Total Touchdowns 1.5
Geno Smith's total touchdowns line is 1.5.
Rushing Yards 7.5
-108 best over price · 10 books
Geno Smith's rushing yards line is 7.5, best over price -108 across 10 books.
Betting angles
2 markets liveRushing YardsNext game · Green Bay Packers @ New York JetsU 7.5 -108 7.5posted line · rushing yds
Geno Smith has a live NFL rushing yards market for Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets: under 7.5 rushing yds priced at -108.
Anytime TDNext game · Green Bay Packers @ New York JetsAnytime TD +750
Geno Smith has a live NFL anytime td market for Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets priced at +750.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Geno Smith (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Geno Smith is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets on Sunday 20 September at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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