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NFL

Geno Smith

NYJ

Value call

Geno Smith has one live pick today: under 223.5 passing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
204.5 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.9% · before adjusting for past results 72.8% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +10.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Geno Smith
under 223.5 passing yards
Passing Yards Under 223.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 64 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Geno Smith is Under 223.5 on Passing Yards.
On Passing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 29, 9:37AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion.
updated Oct 25, 8:58PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards72.8%63.9%53.2%2.00+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Geno Smith (NYJ) Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Jets play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 25 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Geno Smith (NYJ) Under 223.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD24 lines trackedNo line posted
13%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked24

Geno Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 24 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 13%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards34 lines trackedNo line posted
7.5typical line · rushing yds
line range5.5–49.5tips tracked34

Geno Smith's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 34 times, typically around a 7.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards150 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–224.5model over97%tips tracked150

Geno Smith's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 150 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Geno Smith average?How many rushing yards does Geno Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Rushing Yards 6.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Rushing Yards 5.5 Under +100 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Passing Yards — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pass Completions — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Passing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Geno Smith (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Geno Smith is Under 223.5 on Passing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets on Sunday 25 October at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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