Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DK Metcalf is Over 46.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 10:19PM UTC
NFL

DK Metcalf

PIT

Value call

DK Metcalf has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 46.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 46.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Metcalf secured four of 10 targets for 40 yards in the Steelers' 20-13 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
updated Sep 14, 12:42AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
57 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 57.1% · before adjusting for past results 57.1% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +3.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)57.1%57.1%53.2%1.75+3.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons: DK Metcalf Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on DK Metcalf to go over 46.5 receiving yards looks promising at -114. Our numbers suggest it's nearly a toss-up, meaning there's a good chance he can hit that mark against the Falcons. Metcalf has been a solid target for the Steelers, and Atlanta's defense can struggle to contain strong receivers. However, it's worth noting that this matchup is pretty close, and both teams have the potential to surprise. If the Falcons find a way to limit Metcalf's opportunities, it could be tougher for him to reach those yards. Still, with his talent and the way the game is set up, it feels like a solid pick to take.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards103 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–52.5model over99%tips tracked103

DK Metcalf's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 103 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
37%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10

DK Metcalf's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 37%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -1429 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

DK Metcalf (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DK Metcalf is Over 46.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 13 September at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.