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Today's UFC Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Fight

Every UFC fight coming up, graded and ranked best first. All 9 are below, top pick free.

9 fights coming up, and the first pick of every fight is free

Best UFC bet today: Raul Rosas Jr. at Raoni Barcelos: Under Total Rounds 3.5 at +145, high confidence. Raoni Barcelos fights Raul Rosas Jr. 9 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Raul Rosas Jr. v Raoni Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr. at Raoni Barcelos: Under Total Rounds 3.5 +145
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win61.9%
$50 returns$122.50
The rest of the cardfull reasoning on each game below
Raul Rosas Jr. v Raoni BarcelosRaul Rosas Jr. v Raoni Barcelos Raul Rosas Jr. at Raoni Barcelos: Under Total Rounds 3.5 High62% chance +145
Ailin Perez v Norma DumontAilin Perez v Norma Dumont Ailin Perez at Norma Dumont: Under Total Rounds 2.5 Long-shot35% chance +387
Yazmin Jauregui v Vanessa DemopoulosYazmin Jauregui v Vanessa Demopoulos Yazmin Jauregui at Vanessa Demopoulos: Vanessa Demopoulos Moneyline Long-shot27% chance +706
Rodolfo Bellato v Christian EdwardsRodolfo Bellato v Christian Edwards Rodolfo Bellato at Christian Edwards: Under Total Rounds 1.5 Lean53% chance +136
John Castaneda v AlatengheiliJohn Castaneda v Alatengheili John Castaneda at Alatengheili: Heili Alateng Moneyline Long-shot36% chance +280
Montel Jackson v Ricky SimonMontel Jackson v Ricky Simon Montel Jackson at Ricky Simon: Ricky Simon Moneyline Lean41% chance +175
Rinya Nakamura v Brady HiestandRinya Nakamura v Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura at Brady Hiestand: Brady Hiestand Moneyline Long-shot29% chance +295
Rodolfo Vieira v Robert BryczekRodolfo Vieira v Robert Bryczek Rodolfo Vieira at Robert Bryczek: Robert Bryczek Moneyline Lean45% chance +139
Sedriques Dumas v Mickey GallSedriques Dumas v Mickey Gall Sedriques Dumas at Mickey Gall: Sedriques Dumas Moneyline Lean44% chance +143
Raul Rosas Jr. v Raoni BarcelosRaul Rosas Jr. v Raoni Barcelos Moneyline Lean43% chance
Ailin Perez v Norma DumontAilin Perez v Norma Dumont Moneyline High62% chance
Yazmin Jauregui v Vanessa DemopoulosYazmin Jauregui v Vanessa Demopoulos Total Rounds 2.5 High69% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
4 more picks on the card
Unlock all picks
UFCRaul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos 2026-09-26 00:00
Raul Rosas Jr. Away
vs.
Home Raoni Barcelos
Show Picks
Raul Rosas Jr. at Raoni Barcelos: Under Total Rounds 3.5
Chance to win 61.9%
The price says 40.8%
Best price +145

Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.: Under 3.5 total rounds (+145)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Raoni Barcelos fights Raul Rosas Jr. on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 3.5 rounds. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Under 3.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Raul Rosas Jr. at Raoni Barcelos · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 40.0%
UFCAilin Perez vs. Norma Dumont 2026-09-26 00:00
Ailin Perez Away
vs.
Home Norma Dumont
Show Picks
Ailin Perez at Norma Dumont: Under Total Rounds 2.5
Chance to win 35.4%
The price says 20.5%
Best price +387

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez: Under 2.5 total rounds (+387)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Norma Dumont fights Ailin Perez on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 2.5 rounds. It was priced at +387 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $48.70 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Under 2.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ailin Perez at Norma Dumont · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 56.5%
UFCYazmin Jauregui vs. Vanessa Demopoulos 2026-09-26 00:00
Yazmin Jauregui Away
vs.
Home Vanessa Demopoulos
Show Picks
Yazmin Jauregui at Vanessa Demopoulos: Vanessa Demopoulos Moneyline
Chance to win 27.1%
The price says 12.4%
Best price +706

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui: Vanessa Demopoulos to win the fight (+706)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

Vanessa Demopoulos fights Yazmin Jauregui on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Vanessa Demopoulos gets the win. It was priced at +706 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $80.60 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Vanessa Demopoulos to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Yazmin Jauregui at Vanessa Demopoulos · Total Rounds 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 68.0%
UFCRodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards 2026-09-26 00:00
Rodolfo Bellato Away
vs.
Home Christian Edwards
Show Picks
Rodolfo Bellato at Christian Edwards: Under Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 53.2%
The price says 42.4%
Best price +136

Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato: Under 1.5 total rounds (+136)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Christian Edwards fights Rodolfo Bellato on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 1.5 rounds. It was priced at +136 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.60 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Under 1.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rodolfo Bellato at Christian Edwards · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 62.9%
UFCJohn Castaneda vs. Alatengheili 2026-09-26 00:00
John Castaneda Away
vs.
Home Alatengheili
Show Picks
John Castaneda at Alatengheili: Heili Alateng Moneyline
Chance to win 35.6%
The price says 26.3%
Best price +280

Alatengheili vs John Castaneda: Heili Alateng to win the fight (+280)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Alatengheili fights John Castaneda on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Heili Alateng gets the win. It was priced at +280 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $38 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Heili Alateng to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCMontel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon 2026-09-26 00:00
Montel Jackson Away
vs.
Home Ricky Simon
Show Picks
Montel Jackson at Ricky Simon: Ricky Simon Moneyline
Chance to win 41.2%
The price says 36.4%
Best price +175

Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson: Ricky Simon to win the fight (+175)

Odds available at betway at time of publishing

Ricky Simon fights Montel Jackson on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Ricky Simon gets the win. It was priced at +175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Ricky Simon to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCRinya Nakamura vs. Brady Hiestand 2026-09-26 00:00
Rinya Nakamura Away
vs.
Home Brady Hiestand
Show Picks
Rinya Nakamura at Brady Hiestand: Brady Hiestand Moneyline
Chance to win 29.0%
The price says 25.3%
Best price +295

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura: Brady Hiestand to win the fight (+295)

Odds available at Matchbook at time of publishing

Brady Hiestand fights Rinya Nakamura on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Brady Hiestand gets the win. It was priced at +295 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $39.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Brady Hiestand to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCRodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek 2026-09-26 00:00
Rodolfo Vieira Away
vs.
Home Robert Bryczek
Show Picks
Rodolfo Vieira at Robert Bryczek: Robert Bryczek Moneyline
Chance to win 44.9%
The price says 41.8%
Best price +139

Robert Bryczek vs Rodolfo Vieira: Robert Bryczek to win the fight (+139)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

Robert Bryczek fights Rodolfo Vieira on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Robert Bryczek gets the win. It was priced at +139 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.90 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Robert Bryczek to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCSedriques Dumas vs. Mickey Gall 2026-09-26 00:00
Sedriques Dumas Away
vs.
Home Mickey Gall
Show Picks
Sedriques Dumas at Mickey Gall: Sedriques Dumas Moneyline
Chance to win 44.2%
The price says 41.2%
Best price +143

Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas: Sedriques Dumas to win the fight (+143)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

Mickey Gall fights Sedriques Dumas on the UFC card on Saturday 26 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Sedriques Dumas gets the win. It was priced at +143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.30 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Sedriques Dumas to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Quick answer

What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline (winner), method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming UFC game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

UFC pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which fighter wins the bout outright, by any method. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Method of Victory How a fighter wins — KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. Clear stylistic mismatches where the finish is predictable.
Total Rounds Over or under a set number of rounds. Finishing rates, durability, cardio and pace trends.
Fight Props Go the distance, round betting and method combinations. Exploit style edges, finishing tendencies or recent form streaks.

How to read UFC picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated UFC picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major UFC market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

UFC Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are our model's call on which side to back in a UFC fight. The model reads past results and the current bookmaker prices, then names the side it rates best and says why in plain words.

What is the difference between UFC picks and UFC best bets?

This page is the full list, and best bets is the short list. Picks cover every UFC fight on the card across every market, while best bets keeps only the ones the model rates strongest that day.

What types of UFC picks are available?

We post UFC picks on who wins the fight, how the fight ends, and whether it goes the distance. Game and player markets sit together inside each match, with the strongest pick at the top.

How often are UFC picks updated?

They refresh through the day, and again whenever team news or the bookmaker prices move. Later prices carry more information, so the list you see close to start time is the one to trust.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick is named when our model rates a side better than the bookmaker's price says. The wider that gap, the higher the confidence we show, and confidence is a lean over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Can I use UFC picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes, any pick on this page can be a leg in a multi. Each extra leg makes the whole bet harder to land, so two or three strong legs beat a long list. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the UFC Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee UFC picks will win?

No, and nobody can. UFC picks are our best read of what is likely, and good picks still lose, so only ever stake money you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

What time do UFC picks come out?

As soon as the day's fights and prices are up. The list is rebuilt several times a day, and again close to start time when team news and prices move, so the version you see nearest kick-off is the one to read. Fight cards are mostly weekly, so the page fills up in the days before an event.

Do you pick every UFC fight?

No. We only name a side when our model likes it more than the price suggests. Some fights get nothing at all, and that is on purpose - a quiet day here means there was nothing worth backing, not that something is broken.

What does HIGH confidence mean?

We say it in words, not numbers. HIGH means our model likes the pick the most. LEAN means it likes it, but less. LONG-SHOT means a big price that wins less often and pays more when it lands. Confidence is how it should go over a long run of bets, never a promise on one fight.

Do I have to pay to see the UFC picks?

The first pick in every fight is free to read, with no signup. The rest unlock with a subscription. Either way every pick we publish is graded in public, wins and losses, on our results page.

Today's selected board

See every UFC play that cleared the model's filter today

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