Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyler Warren is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 92 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 92%, the price says 93%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 2, 8:42PM UTC
NFL
Tyler Warren
IND
Tyler Warren has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 that pays $107 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 14.5
-1429 (1.07) · $100→$107
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 226 of 421 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Warren caught nine of 10 targets for 55 yards and added a two-yard run in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Texans.
updated Sep 27, 10:01PM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
92 in 100
Predicted
44.7 Receiving Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 92.2% · before adjusting for past results 94.8% · the book's price implies 93.5% · gap -1.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 94.8% | 92.2% | 93.5% | 1.07 | +1.3% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Tyler Warren (IND) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1429)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tyler Warren (IND) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -1429 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $10.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Tyler Warren's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Tyler Warren's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards 47.5
-114 best over price · 5 books
Tyler Warren's receiving yards line is 47.5, best over price -114 across 5 books.
Receiving Yards 46.5
-114 best over price · 5 books
Tyler Warren's receiving yards line is 46.5, best over price -114 across 5 books.
Receiving Yards 48.5
-111 best over price · 3 books
Tyler Warren's receiving yards line is 48.5, best over price -111 across 3 books.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceiving YardsNext game · Washington CommandersU 48.5 -114 48.5posted line · receiving yds
Tyler Warren has a live NFL receiving yards market for Washington Commanders: under 48.5 receiving yds priced at -114.
Receptions84 lines trackedNo line posted 4.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–9.5model over71%tips tracked84
Tyler Warren's NFL receptions prop has been priced 84 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-476 |
✓ HIT |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-909 |
✓ HIT |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-1429 |
✓ HIT |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Tyler Warren (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyler Warren is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders on Sunday 4 October at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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