Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keon Coleman is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:23AM UTC
NFL
Keon Coleman
BUF
Keon Coleman has one live pick today: Receptions Under 1.5 that pays $160 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 1.5
-167 (1.60) · $100→$160
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Coleman brought in all six targets for 63 yards in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday.
updated Sep 18, 5:02AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
65 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 65.2% · before adjusting for past results 76.9% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap +2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 76.9% | 65.2% | 62.5% | 1.70 | +14.4% |
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Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 1.5 Receptions (-167)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 1.5 Receptions. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted 21.5typical line · receiving yds
line range11.5–22.5tips tracked9
Keon Coleman's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 21.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3
Keon Coleman's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions3 lines trackedNo line posted 1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked3
Keon Coleman's NFL receptions prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Keon Coleman (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keon Coleman is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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