Jalen Nailor has one live pick today: over 2.5 receptions that pays $293 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
33 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 32.7% · before adjusting for past results 44.2% · the book's price implies 34.1% · gap -1.4%.
Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Las Vegas Raiders
Jalen Nailor
over 2.5 receptions
Receptions (Alt)
Over 2.5
+193 (2.93) · $100→$293
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 33 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$29.30
Odds+193
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Nailor is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 33 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 33%, the price says 34%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:47AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLE
Nailor (concussion) isn't participating in Wednesday's practice, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
updated Oct 14, 7:33PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 44.2% | 32.7% | 34.1% | 2.93 | +10.1% |
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Jalen Nailor (LV) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (+193)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jalen Nailor (LV) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +193 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards18 lines trackedNo line posted 4.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–29.5model over89%tips tracked18
Jalen Nailor's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 18 times, typically around a 4.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions22 lines trackedNo line posted 1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–5.5model over69%tips tracked22
Jalen Nailor's NFL receptions prop has been priced 22 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-500 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-244 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-400 |
✓ HIT |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Jalen Nailor (LV) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Nailor is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.1% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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