Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Nailor is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 68%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:04PM UTC
NFL
Jalen Nailor
LV
Jalen Nailor has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 29.5 that pays $152 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 29.5
-192 (1.52) · $100→$152
Value call
Miami Dolphins
@
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Nailor caught one of three targets for nine yards in Sunday's 26-14 win over the Chargers.
updated Sep 21, 4:06AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
41.8 Receiving Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 68.5% · before adjusting for past results 68.5% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 68.5% | 68.5% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +2.7% |
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Jalen Nailor (LV) Over 29.5 Player reception yds alternate (-192)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Las Vegas Raiders play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jalen Nailor (LV) Over 29.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -192 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted 19.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–29.5model over87%tips tracked14
Jalen Nailor's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 19.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
29.5 |
Over |
-192 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-244 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-400 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Jalen Nailor (LV) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Nailor is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 13 September at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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