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NFL

Darnell Washington

PIT

Value call

Darnell Washington has one live pick today: over 3.5 receptions that pays $448 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
18 in 100
Predicted
2.5 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 18.3% · before adjusting for past results 25.7% · the book's price implies 22.3% · gap -4.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Darnell Washington
over 3.5 receptions
Receptions (Alt) Over 3.5 +348 (4.48) · $100→$448
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 18 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$44.80 Odds+348
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darnell Washington is Over 3.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 18 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 18%, the price says 22%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:42AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Washington caught two of three targets for 12 yards during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
updated Oct 14, 2:11AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)25.7%18.3%22.3%4.48+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Darnell Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (Alt) (+348)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Darnell Washington to have over 3.5 receptions tonight, he needs to have a solid connection with his quarterback. The Steelers have a strong defense that doesn't allow many touchdowns to running backs, which might mean the offense looks for other options like Washington, especially since the Colts gave up quite a few plays to tight ends last season. Washington could flourish with this matchup because the Colts struggled against tight ends, letting in a lot of receptions. The Steelers' quarterback has faced extra pressure on dropbacks more often this year, so quick passes to Washington could be a smart move. The biggest risk here is that both teams are pretty close in talent, so it could go either way.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range12.5–69.5tips tracked14

Darnell Washington's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions21 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–4.5model over71%tips tracked21

Darnell Washington's NFL receptions prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

Darnell Washington's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Darnell Washington average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards 22.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receptions (Alt) 1.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over +970 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receptions — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darnell Washington (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darnell Washington is Over 3.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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